Estimation Update and Feedback Procedures
151
Take the Beaverhill Lake play as an example. Given that the largest
discovered pool (211 × 10
6 m
3
) is actually the second largest pool, then
the predicted interval for the size of the largest possible pool ranges
from 320 × 10
6 m
3 to 4129 × 10
6 m
3 , which requires a pool area as large
as the largest currently present pool. With this information, we can
address the question: Have we overlooked the largest pool of this play?
This type of feedback mechanism allows us to challenge underlying
geological concepts or to validate our input data. It is one of the essential features of the evaluation system.
Pool Size Conditional on Play Resource
Individual pool size and number of pools can be estimated for a given
play resource. This technique can be used as a feedback mechanism to
resolve discrepancies between different estimates and to validate basic
input factors, such as exploration risk, number of pools, and pool-size
distribution.
Having computed the play resource distribution, one measure of
the resource is the mean of the distribution. However, geologists might
choose a value other than the mean of the distribution as a point estimate of the resource.
151
Take the Beaverhill Lake play as an example. Given that the largest
discovered pool (211 × 10
6 m
3
) is actually the second largest pool, then
the predicted interval for the size of the largest possible pool ranges
from 320 × 10
6 m
3 to 4129 × 10
6 m
3 , which requires a pool area as large
as the largest currently present pool. With this information, we can
address the question: Have we overlooked the largest pool of this play?
This type of feedback mechanism allows us to challenge underlying
geological concepts or to validate our input data. It is one of the essential features of the evaluation system.
Pool Size Conditional on Play Resource
Individual pool size and number of pools can be estimated for a given
play resource. This technique can be used as a feedback mechanism to
resolve discrepancies between different estimates and to validate basic
input factors, such as exploration risk, number of pools, and pool-size
distribution.
Having computed the play resource distribution, one measure of
the resource is the mean of the distribution. However, geologists might
choose a value other than the mean of the distribution as a point estimate of the resource.