Estimation Update and Feedback Procedures
149
Step 6: Estimating Other Reservoir Parameters
Reservoir parameters for each given pool size can be estimated. In addition, resource distributions for basin, geological province, or country
can be obtained by summing all the potential from plays, basin, and
geological provinces.
Update Procedure
A comprehensive and effi cient annual update procedure is provided
in PETRIMES, and changes are published as warranted. The update
exercise is executed annually. Assessments of each play are updated in
two steps, as follows:
New discoveries are examined to determine whether they lie
1.
inside or outside the play boundary.
The sizes of the new discoveries are then examined to deter2.
mine whether they are consistent with those predicted.
If new discoveries do not agree with predictions, an update exercise is
performed, revising play defi nitions for specifi c plays.
Feedback Procedure
Feedback is essential for any assessment. Figure 6.3 shows different
levels of feedback through a petroleum assessment. It is extremely
important for the validity of the assessment that it not be carried out
in isolation. The geologists who defi ned the play and the assessors who
make the prediction must all work together as a team. The strength
of the PETRIMES approach to assessing hydrocarbon resources is
derived from teamwork and constant feedback between the geological
and statistical components of the assessment procedure. Separating
these two components and “number crunching” the pool data can only
lead to unreliable and potentially disastrous estimates. The feedback
mechanisms are described in the following sections.
Can We Predict the Current Situation?
For mature plays, it is highly recommended that the discoveries be
divided into two subsets: (1) to examine whether the second set can be
149
Step 6: Estimating Other Reservoir Parameters
Reservoir parameters for each given pool size can be estimated. In addition, resource distributions for basin, geological province, or country
can be obtained by summing all the potential from plays, basin, and
geological provinces.
Update Procedure
A comprehensive and effi cient annual update procedure is provided
in PETRIMES, and changes are published as warranted. The update
exercise is executed annually. Assessments of each play are updated in
two steps, as follows:
New discoveries are examined to determine whether they lie
1.
inside or outside the play boundary.
The sizes of the new discoveries are then examined to deter2.
mine whether they are consistent with those predicted.
If new discoveries do not agree with predictions, an update exercise is
performed, revising play defi nitions for specifi c plays.
Feedback Procedure
Feedback is essential for any assessment. Figure 6.3 shows different
levels of feedback through a petroleum assessment. It is extremely
important for the validity of the assessment that it not be carried out
in isolation. The geologists who defi ned the play and the assessors who
make the prediction must all work together as a team. The strength
of the PETRIMES approach to assessing hydrocarbon resources is
derived from teamwork and constant feedback between the geological
and statistical components of the assessment procedure. Separating
these two components and “number crunching” the pool data can only
lead to unreliable and potentially disastrous estimates. The feedback
mechanisms are described in the following sections.
Can We Predict the Current Situation?
For mature plays, it is highly recommended that the discoveries be
divided into two subsets: (1) to examine whether the second set can be