Estimation Update and Feedback Procedures
145
Figure 2.12B is the logarithmic probability plot for the Keg River oil
play in the Rainbow basin. Because the discoveries of the play show a
fairly straight line on the plot, there is no evidence to negate either the
single population or lognormal assumption hypothesis.
Step 4: Estimating Pool-Size Distribution
For mature plays, the pool-size distribution can be estimated using
LDSCV and NDSCV. The log likelihood of both models suggests the
total number of pools in the play. Therefore, the estimated b, m, and σ
2
values can be obtained.
Step 5: Determining an Appropriate Probability Distribution
Having estimated the superpopulation pool-size distribution and the
total number of pools, the NDSCV should be applied to the Q–Q plots
to test the distribution assumptions. Figures 4.20, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.26
demonstrate that the lognormal assumption is adequate.
Step 6: Estimating Pool-Size-by-Rank
The pool-size-by-rank distribution for the Beaverhill Lake oil play was
shown in Chapter 3 (Fig. 3.14A). Discovered pool sizes are represented
by dots, whereas estimated pool sizes are indicated by vertical bars.
Discovered pool sizes can be matched to specifi c estimated pool ranks
during consultation with assessment team members.
Figure 3.14B shows pool-size-by-rank conditional on the match. By
this we mean that undiscovered pool sizes have been constrained by the
fact that their size ranges cannot be greater or less than any adjacent
discovered pool. The expected value of each undiscovered pool is used
in the economic analysis.
Step 7: Estimating Expected and Probable Play Potential
The remaining play potential can be estimated from the total number
of pools and the pool-size distribution. Adding together the means of
all undiscovered pool sizes yields the expected value of the remaining
play potential distribution and is defi ned as the expected potential.
The expected value of the remaining potential is governed by
individual pool sizes and the assigned pool ranks, both of which are
determined by the geological play defi nition used and the quality of
the data set for the discovered pools. If the discovered pool sizes are
145
Figure 2.12B is the logarithmic probability plot for the Keg River oil
play in the Rainbow basin. Because the discoveries of the play show a
fairly straight line on the plot, there is no evidence to negate either the
single population or lognormal assumption hypothesis.
Step 4: Estimating Pool-Size Distribution
For mature plays, the pool-size distribution can be estimated using
LDSCV and NDSCV. The log likelihood of both models suggests the
total number of pools in the play. Therefore, the estimated b, m, and σ
2
values can be obtained.
Step 5: Determining an Appropriate Probability Distribution
Having estimated the superpopulation pool-size distribution and the
total number of pools, the NDSCV should be applied to the Q–Q plots
to test the distribution assumptions. Figures 4.20, 4.22, 4.23, and 4.26
demonstrate that the lognormal assumption is adequate.
Step 6: Estimating Pool-Size-by-Rank
The pool-size-by-rank distribution for the Beaverhill Lake oil play was
shown in Chapter 3 (Fig. 3.14A). Discovered pool sizes are represented
by dots, whereas estimated pool sizes are indicated by vertical bars.
Discovered pool sizes can be matched to specifi c estimated pool ranks
during consultation with assessment team members.
Figure 3.14B shows pool-size-by-rank conditional on the match. By
this we mean that undiscovered pool sizes have been constrained by the
fact that their size ranges cannot be greater or less than any adjacent
discovered pool. The expected value of each undiscovered pool is used
in the economic analysis.
Step 7: Estimating Expected and Probable Play Potential
The remaining play potential can be estimated from the total number
of pools and the pool-size distribution. Adding together the means of
all undiscovered pool sizes yields the expected value of the remaining
play potential distribution and is defi ned as the expected potential.
The expected value of the remaining potential is governed by
individual pool sizes and the assigned pool ranks, both of which are
determined by the geological play defi nition used and the quality of
the data set for the discovered pools. If the discovered pool sizes are