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A conceptual play has not yet been proved through exploration and can
only be postulated from geological information. An immature play contains several discoveries, but not enough for discovery process models
(described in Chapter 3) to be applied. The amount of data available
for evaluating a conceptual play can be highly variable. Therefore, the
evaluation methods used are related to the amount and types of data
available, some of which are listed in Table 5.1.
Detailed descriptions of these methods are beyond the scope of this
book. However, an overview of these and other methods will be presented in Chapter 7. This chapter deals with the application of numerical methods to conceptual or immature plays. For immature plays,
discoveries can be used to validate the estimates obtained. In this chapter, the Beaverhill Lake play and a play from the East Coast of Canada
are examined.
Geological Factors
Exploration Risk
A play consists of a number of pools and/or prospects that may or may
not contain hydrocarbons. Therefore, associated with each prospect is
5
Evaluating Conceptual Plays
As time goes on, qualitative methods are replaced by quantitative
methods.
—F. Y. Loewinson-Lessing