5.7 Fourth Industrial Revolution and Global Energy Prospects
187
5.7 Fourth Industrial Revolution and Global Energy
Prospects
External energy obtained from fossil fuel has pervaded modern-day life of most of
us, minimizing the use of internal energy that we all possess. From human-driven
ploughs, cart, bi, and tricycles to animal-driven carriages, carts, and tills, technology
has reached its zenith where cars are driven on voice command, computers, and many
other electrical and electronic devices are operated effortlessly through interactive
voice response system. The third wave of invention set off by advances in computing,
information and communication technology uses external energy that has a cost. Coal
is dirtiest adding substantially to carbon emission, crude oil is subject to shocking
fluctuations in output and price, natural gas supply has been monopolized by few
countries, hydropower faces displacement outcry, and nuclear power has a flip side
of waste disposal and radiation leaks. Impact and sensitivity to dirty fuels has motivated technical experts to look for three options. One, how to minimize the bad
effects of dirty fuels; two, look for cleaner sources of energy; and three, introduce
low-energy consumption devices. Super-critical technology for thermal plants, small
hydropower plants, and LED bulbs are good examples to exemplify these. The transition for cleaner energy will take time given that hydrocarbons in earth’s crust are
still aplenty, the extraction technology is yet to ‘peak’, and shift from machines operating on dirty fuels to cleaner fuels will depend on investment, production cost, and
purchasing power. Investment in cleaner fuel is inversely proportional to the cost
of dirty fuel, and the cost of dirty fuels is decided by conglomerates that ensure
buoyancy. Fortunately, public opinion and Paris Agreement has benefitted cleaner
energy with unprecedented investment in renewables
23 by rich nations. But this has
not deterred them to invest less in dirty fuel. On the contrary, USA and Canada have
invested huge money in shale oil and gas and tar sand oil. Russia has invested in
natural gas extractions and Germany has not reduced its coal mining.
The fourth industrial revolution is expected to change the following:
i. Shift in production paradigm—from mechanization and human skills the fourth
revolution will witness discrete role of artificial intelligence, robotics, internet
taking human skills to next level of mental excellence.
ii. Improve the quality of life and income—by improved transportation (e.g. electric
vehicle, mass transit system), ease of driving, less pollution, and so on.
iii. Alteration in labor demand pattern—more automation means less intervention
by humans. For example, driverless cars, robotic, and vacuum cleaners have
changed the demand for labor. This will also mean better adaptiveness by countries with right mix of human capital. For countries like India with large workforce, it will be important to invest money in training and retraining people to
suit market requirement both nationally and globally.
23 The average investment in renewables was around USD 260 billion per year during the first half
of last decade. Ref Special report on Energy and Technology, The Economist, January 17, 2015.
187
5.7 Fourth Industrial Revolution and Global Energy
Prospects
External energy obtained from fossil fuel has pervaded modern-day life of most of
us, minimizing the use of internal energy that we all possess. From human-driven
ploughs, cart, bi, and tricycles to animal-driven carriages, carts, and tills, technology
has reached its zenith where cars are driven on voice command, computers, and many
other electrical and electronic devices are operated effortlessly through interactive
voice response system. The third wave of invention set off by advances in computing,
information and communication technology uses external energy that has a cost. Coal
is dirtiest adding substantially to carbon emission, crude oil is subject to shocking
fluctuations in output and price, natural gas supply has been monopolized by few
countries, hydropower faces displacement outcry, and nuclear power has a flip side
of waste disposal and radiation leaks. Impact and sensitivity to dirty fuels has motivated technical experts to look for three options. One, how to minimize the bad
effects of dirty fuels; two, look for cleaner sources of energy; and three, introduce
low-energy consumption devices. Super-critical technology for thermal plants, small
hydropower plants, and LED bulbs are good examples to exemplify these. The transition for cleaner energy will take time given that hydrocarbons in earth’s crust are
still aplenty, the extraction technology is yet to ‘peak’, and shift from machines operating on dirty fuels to cleaner fuels will depend on investment, production cost, and
purchasing power. Investment in cleaner fuel is inversely proportional to the cost
of dirty fuel, and the cost of dirty fuels is decided by conglomerates that ensure
buoyancy. Fortunately, public opinion and Paris Agreement has benefitted cleaner
energy with unprecedented investment in renewables
23 by rich nations. But this has
not deterred them to invest less in dirty fuel. On the contrary, USA and Canada have
invested huge money in shale oil and gas and tar sand oil. Russia has invested in
natural gas extractions and Germany has not reduced its coal mining.
The fourth industrial revolution is expected to change the following:
i. Shift in production paradigm—from mechanization and human skills the fourth
revolution will witness discrete role of artificial intelligence, robotics, internet
taking human skills to next level of mental excellence.
ii. Improve the quality of life and income—by improved transportation (e.g. electric
vehicle, mass transit system), ease of driving, less pollution, and so on.
iii. Alteration in labor demand pattern—more automation means less intervention
by humans. For example, driverless cars, robotic, and vacuum cleaners have
changed the demand for labor. This will also mean better adaptiveness by countries with right mix of human capital. For countries like India with large workforce, it will be important to invest money in training and retraining people to
suit market requirement both nationally and globally.
23 The average investment in renewables was around USD 260 billion per year during the first half
of last decade. Ref Special report on Energy and Technology, The Economist, January 17, 2015.