3.7 Overcoming Impediments to Sustained Energy Supply
113
This is a trap for many countries including India. In the race for achieving high
HDI score and in the absence of economically viable alternatives, India will continue
to use coal irrespective of the environmental and health consequences. The chances
of reversing the trends appear bleak as it poses a formidable challenge between
economic growth, energy security, and climate mitigation. Huge upfront investment
is required in the coming years for:
(a) Switchover from sub-critical thermal power plants to super-critical, ultra-supercritical and IGCC.
(b) Complete small, medium, and large hydropower plants on time.
(c) Enhance the capacity of renewable energy.
(d) Complete substitution of biomass fuels in rural and forest areas.
While the current policies indicate that India is inclined to follow low carbon
path, but the data indicates otherwise, that is, sluggish transition toward low carbon
trajectory. India’s absolute emissions are expected to grow much beyond 2030 and
the impact of climate-related events will be much bigger than anticipated. Consider
the following:
i. India plans to increase its coal production to one billion tons by 2019, and
the absolute growth in coal-generated electricity by 2030 is larger than absolute increase in renewable energy generation capacity. By 2040, India will be
the second largest coal user (after China) generating 441 gigawatts
17 under
business as usual scenario.
ii. India’s current climate change targets are insufficient to counter the catastrophic
events, which according to IPCC will worsen in future.
iii. India’s clean energy finance has been inadequate. India’s investment in clean
energy has averaged 9 billion USD per annum between 2010 and 2015. In
2014, India invested 7.9 billion USD as compared with China’s (83 billion
USD) and USA (35.8 billion USD).
iv. In 2016, there were 62 million households without access to grid electricity.
18
In addition, there were around 11 million households in rural areas which were
officially connected with grid but did not get adequate power supply due to
poor service and outages.
v. In 2017, there were 304 million Indians without access to electricity and 500
million depended on biomass fuel for cooking.
19 For such people double-digit
growth rate has no meaning and they continue their struggle for fuel collection.
vi. There are serious challenges in sustaining rural electrification. Rural poor still
believe that electricity is a social welfare activity and not a serious commercial
business. Government schemes can provide household connectivity to the grid
but getting the cost of electricity supply will be a big challenge. That is why
not many private players will be keen to invest in rural energy sector.
17 NITI Aayog (2017).
18 Watanabe et al. (2016).
19 NITI Aayog 2017.
113
This is a trap for many countries including India. In the race for achieving high
HDI score and in the absence of economically viable alternatives, India will continue
to use coal irrespective of the environmental and health consequences. The chances
of reversing the trends appear bleak as it poses a formidable challenge between
economic growth, energy security, and climate mitigation. Huge upfront investment
is required in the coming years for:
(a) Switchover from sub-critical thermal power plants to super-critical, ultra-supercritical and IGCC.
(b) Complete small, medium, and large hydropower plants on time.
(c) Enhance the capacity of renewable energy.
(d) Complete substitution of biomass fuels in rural and forest areas.
While the current policies indicate that India is inclined to follow low carbon
path, but the data indicates otherwise, that is, sluggish transition toward low carbon
trajectory. India’s absolute emissions are expected to grow much beyond 2030 and
the impact of climate-related events will be much bigger than anticipated. Consider
the following:
i. India plans to increase its coal production to one billion tons by 2019, and
the absolute growth in coal-generated electricity by 2030 is larger than absolute increase in renewable energy generation capacity. By 2040, India will be
the second largest coal user (after China) generating 441 gigawatts
17 under
business as usual scenario.
ii. India’s current climate change targets are insufficient to counter the catastrophic
events, which according to IPCC will worsen in future.
iii. India’s clean energy finance has been inadequate. India’s investment in clean
energy has averaged 9 billion USD per annum between 2010 and 2015. In
2014, India invested 7.9 billion USD as compared with China’s (83 billion
USD) and USA (35.8 billion USD).
iv. In 2016, there were 62 million households without access to grid electricity.
18
In addition, there were around 11 million households in rural areas which were
officially connected with grid but did not get adequate power supply due to
poor service and outages.
v. In 2017, there were 304 million Indians without access to electricity and 500
million depended on biomass fuel for cooking.
19 For such people double-digit
growth rate has no meaning and they continue their struggle for fuel collection.
vi. There are serious challenges in sustaining rural electrification. Rural poor still
believe that electricity is a social welfare activity and not a serious commercial
business. Government schemes can provide household connectivity to the grid
but getting the cost of electricity supply will be a big challenge. That is why
not many private players will be keen to invest in rural energy sector.
17 NITI Aayog (2017).
18 Watanabe et al. (2016).
19 NITI Aayog 2017.