15 CONCLUSIONS
391
with a 2020 target of 850 MW (GWEC 2020). These are targets that are
also indicative of a developing country still in the early stages of renewable
expansion. They are not particularly ambitious targets for an economy
with nearly 100 million people, even if its GDP per capita is only onetenth of that of Norway. However, after the introduction of a FIT, solar
installations surged to the extent that at the end of 2019, Vietnam had
long surpassed the 850 MW target, with total installations of 5.5 GW of
solar PV in only a few years (VOA News 2020).
What is also indicative of a rapidly growing developing country is the
fact that for a decade GDP has been growing steadily at more than 6%
a year and energy consumption at almost 12%. Thus, it is a country that
needs renewables for many reasons, not necessarily as part of an energy
transition, but for sheer energy security-reasons. Vietnam needs more
energy (it also recently abandoned its nuclear power program), thus the
long-term renewable targets are considerably more ambitious. Renewables are increasingly seen as part of the solution, with a 6 GW wind
power and a 12 GW solar PV target for 2030, and a goal that all renewables except hydropower will then account for 10% of the power mix.
With the surge in solar installations, this target is well within reach. As
is however often the case with both developing countries and countries
in an early phase of renewable expansion, it goes along with regulatory
opacity, complex approval processes, a lack of domestic technical expertise
and an underdeveloped power grid (GWEC 2020).
What this is also means is that Vietnam is still in that early phase
where the focus has been on phasing in renewables as fast as possible,
providing incentives for installments rather than grid development. It
is also abundantly clear that hydropower will yield more power, as the
authors state that installed capacity will increase from beyond 20 GW
today to 27.8 GW by 2030. This is close to the total capacity of Norway,
which in terms of square kilometers is virtually the same size as Vietnam.
And from the Norway chapter we know that Norway holds roughly 50%
of Europe’s total hydro storage capacity. Obviously, there is a difference
in that Norwegian hydropower caters to a little over 5 million people and
Vietnam a little less than 100 million, but it still means that hydropower
has the potential to become a very significant part of the Vietnamese
energy mix (already at 40% of the capacity for electricity generation), especially when taking into account that energy use per capita is a lot lower
than in Norway.
391
with a 2020 target of 850 MW (GWEC 2020). These are targets that are
also indicative of a developing country still in the early stages of renewable
expansion. They are not particularly ambitious targets for an economy
with nearly 100 million people, even if its GDP per capita is only onetenth of that of Norway. However, after the introduction of a FIT, solar
installations surged to the extent that at the end of 2019, Vietnam had
long surpassed the 850 MW target, with total installations of 5.5 GW of
solar PV in only a few years (VOA News 2020).
What is also indicative of a rapidly growing developing country is the
fact that for a decade GDP has been growing steadily at more than 6%
a year and energy consumption at almost 12%. Thus, it is a country that
needs renewables for many reasons, not necessarily as part of an energy
transition, but for sheer energy security-reasons. Vietnam needs more
energy (it also recently abandoned its nuclear power program), thus the
long-term renewable targets are considerably more ambitious. Renewables are increasingly seen as part of the solution, with a 6 GW wind
power and a 12 GW solar PV target for 2030, and a goal that all renewables except hydropower will then account for 10% of the power mix.
With the surge in solar installations, this target is well within reach. As
is however often the case with both developing countries and countries
in an early phase of renewable expansion, it goes along with regulatory
opacity, complex approval processes, a lack of domestic technical expertise
and an underdeveloped power grid (GWEC 2020).
What this is also means is that Vietnam is still in that early phase
where the focus has been on phasing in renewables as fast as possible,
providing incentives for installments rather than grid development. It
is also abundantly clear that hydropower will yield more power, as the
authors state that installed capacity will increase from beyond 20 GW
today to 27.8 GW by 2030. This is close to the total capacity of Norway,
which in terms of square kilometers is virtually the same size as Vietnam.
And from the Norway chapter we know that Norway holds roughly 50%
of Europe’s total hydro storage capacity. Obviously, there is a difference
in that Norwegian hydropower caters to a little over 5 million people and
Vietnam a little less than 100 million, but it still means that hydropower
has the potential to become a very significant part of the Vietnamese
energy mix (already at 40% of the capacity for electricity generation), especially when taking into account that energy use per capita is a lot lower
than in Norway.