290 E. MOE ET AL.
presented an estimate for land-based wind of 76 TWh. NVE (2019)
operates with a far more conservative 26 TWh. For many years, the
rate of land-based wind power installations was slow, with lukewarm
government support. The notion that MOPE should play a major role
in promoting renewable energy seemed distant. In 2006, as feed-in tariffs
were discussed, the impression of Norwea (the organization representing
the interests of renewable energy producers in Norway) was one of
facing a wall of MOPE bureaucrats with no belief in wind power. Upon
asking a senior MOPE bureaucrat if a change of government would
make a difference, Øyvind Isachsen of Norwea was told that it would
not, as the bureaucrats ensured that policies remained stable (Hager
2014). However, in 2012 a green certificate system was introduced, partly
in response to the EU renewable energy directive. Here, Norway and
Sweden committed to financing a total of 28.4 TWh of renewable energy
by 2020. 4 In combination with a dramatic fall in wind power costs, this
has increased the pace of Norwegian wind power installations. At the
end of 2020, capacity was 3.7 GW. Europe’s largest onshore wind power
project is being installed in Central Norway, with six wind parks, 278
turbines, and a capacity of more than 1 GW, resulting in 3.4 TWh of
annual electricity (Otte et al. 2018). Near 4 GW by 2020 implies more
than a quadrupling of capacity in only four years, which however also
suggests how slow the pace was until 2016. 5 By the end of 2021, wind
power might generate 16 TWh of electricity, or roughly 10% of total electricity generation, up from less than 3 TWh and 1.9% as late as 2017
(Vindportalen 2020).
How about offshore wind power? In 2007, the media labeled the
government’s tottery offshore wind initiatives a second lunar landing
(after Carbon Capture and Storage). In 2009, Petroleum and Energy
Minister Terje Riis-Johansen (Center Party) presented a framework for
another “future industrial and energy adventure”, namely offshore wind
power (Moe 2015; Regjeringen.no 2009). In 2009, Equinor’s Hywind
project became the world’s first full-scale floating offshore wind turbine,
triggering expectations of a future offshore wind boom (Bellona 2009;
TU 2016, 2017). However, successive Petroleum and Energy Ministers
were ever less encouraging, until Ola Borten Moe (Center Party) in 2011
explicitly denounced offshore wind as too expensive, backtracking on
expectations created by his predecessors (TU 2011a). Costs are however
falling far faster within offshore wind than land-based, and Equinor is
seemingly more eagerly diversifying away from petroleum than before.
presented an estimate for land-based wind of 76 TWh. NVE (2019)
operates with a far more conservative 26 TWh. For many years, the
rate of land-based wind power installations was slow, with lukewarm
government support. The notion that MOPE should play a major role
in promoting renewable energy seemed distant. In 2006, as feed-in tariffs
were discussed, the impression of Norwea (the organization representing
the interests of renewable energy producers in Norway) was one of
facing a wall of MOPE bureaucrats with no belief in wind power. Upon
asking a senior MOPE bureaucrat if a change of government would
make a difference, Øyvind Isachsen of Norwea was told that it would
not, as the bureaucrats ensured that policies remained stable (Hager
2014). However, in 2012 a green certificate system was introduced, partly
in response to the EU renewable energy directive. Here, Norway and
Sweden committed to financing a total of 28.4 TWh of renewable energy
by 2020. 4 In combination with a dramatic fall in wind power costs, this
has increased the pace of Norwegian wind power installations. At the
end of 2020, capacity was 3.7 GW. Europe’s largest onshore wind power
project is being installed in Central Norway, with six wind parks, 278
turbines, and a capacity of more than 1 GW, resulting in 3.4 TWh of
annual electricity (Otte et al. 2018). Near 4 GW by 2020 implies more
than a quadrupling of capacity in only four years, which however also
suggests how slow the pace was until 2016. 5 By the end of 2021, wind
power might generate 16 TWh of electricity, or roughly 10% of total electricity generation, up from less than 3 TWh and 1.9% as late as 2017
(Vindportalen 2020).
How about offshore wind power? In 2007, the media labeled the
government’s tottery offshore wind initiatives a second lunar landing
(after Carbon Capture and Storage). In 2009, Petroleum and Energy
Minister Terje Riis-Johansen (Center Party) presented a framework for
another “future industrial and energy adventure”, namely offshore wind
power (Moe 2015; Regjeringen.no 2009). In 2009, Equinor’s Hywind
project became the world’s first full-scale floating offshore wind turbine,
triggering expectations of a future offshore wind boom (Bellona 2009;
TU 2016, 2017). However, successive Petroleum and Energy Ministers
were ever less encouraging, until Ola Borten Moe (Center Party) in 2011
explicitly denounced offshore wind as too expensive, backtracking on
expectations created by his predecessors (TU 2011a). Costs are however
falling far faster within offshore wind than land-based, and Equinor is
seemingly more eagerly diversifying away from petroleum than before.