9 CHINA’S PROMOTION OF WIND AND SOLAR POWER …
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dioxide emitted per dollar of GDP) by 2020. The main limitation of an
intensity-based target is that, although it can lower an energy and emission growth trajectory below the projected business-as-usual level, it is
unlikely to result in an absolute decrease in energy consumption and
carbon emissions.
In the fight against climate change, China has proposed the targets of
lifting the proportion of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to
15% by 2020, and 20% by 2030. Large parts of the 12th FYP (2011–
2015) and 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) have been set to be devoted
to the building up of a low-carbon and energy efficiency economy.
Nevertheless, this kind of symbiotic relationship between China’s energy
sufficiency and efficiency strategies could, in the long run, lead to overdependence upon newly-added capacities of low-carbon energy, including
hydropower, nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal power, and overlook
of real efficiency issues addressed in documents like the PRC Law on
Conserving Energy (1997) or FYPs.
For the 12th FYP period, the Chinese government, in response to
new industrial conditions of leapfrogging PV manufacturing capacity
and nuclear power technology, as well as environmental concerns, was
adjusting its low-carbon electricity strategy with focus being shifted from
wind to solar. The 12th FYP anticipated the solar would grow 89.5%
annually, whereas wind’s growth rate would drop to 26.4%. Emerging
trends, driven by more sophisticated energy markets, volatile energy
production costs, reassessment of innate geographical conditions and
environmental impact, and increased attention to supporting domestic
industries, were changing the value of these non-fossil fuels in the eyes
of Chinese policy makers.
As compared to the goals set by the 12 FYP, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s energy regulator,
has proposed the targets of increasing installed capacity of wind power
by 63% to 210 GW, and that of PV power by 144% to 105 GW in
the 13th FYP (2016–2020) period (China’s 13th Five-Year Plan on
Energy Development 2016). In terms of low-carbon electricity generation, hydropower by comparison has contributed much greater capacity
to China’s electricity market than wind, nuclear and solar PV power
combined. However, if the above targets are achieved by 2020, the total
installed capacity of wind and PV power would be 315 GW, close to
the expected hydropower capacity of 340 GW by 2020 (China’s 13th
Five-Year Plan on Energy Development 2016).
205
dioxide emitted per dollar of GDP) by 2020. The main limitation of an
intensity-based target is that, although it can lower an energy and emission growth trajectory below the projected business-as-usual level, it is
unlikely to result in an absolute decrease in energy consumption and
carbon emissions.
In the fight against climate change, China has proposed the targets of
lifting the proportion of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to
15% by 2020, and 20% by 2030. Large parts of the 12th FYP (2011–
2015) and 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) have been set to be devoted
to the building up of a low-carbon and energy efficiency economy.
Nevertheless, this kind of symbiotic relationship between China’s energy
sufficiency and efficiency strategies could, in the long run, lead to overdependence upon newly-added capacities of low-carbon energy, including
hydropower, nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal power, and overlook
of real efficiency issues addressed in documents like the PRC Law on
Conserving Energy (1997) or FYPs.
For the 12th FYP period, the Chinese government, in response to
new industrial conditions of leapfrogging PV manufacturing capacity
and nuclear power technology, as well as environmental concerns, was
adjusting its low-carbon electricity strategy with focus being shifted from
wind to solar. The 12th FYP anticipated the solar would grow 89.5%
annually, whereas wind’s growth rate would drop to 26.4%. Emerging
trends, driven by more sophisticated energy markets, volatile energy
production costs, reassessment of innate geographical conditions and
environmental impact, and increased attention to supporting domestic
industries, were changing the value of these non-fossil fuels in the eyes
of Chinese policy makers.
As compared to the goals set by the 12 FYP, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s energy regulator,
has proposed the targets of increasing installed capacity of wind power
by 63% to 210 GW, and that of PV power by 144% to 105 GW in
the 13th FYP (2016–2020) period (China’s 13th Five-Year Plan on
Energy Development 2016). In terms of low-carbon electricity generation, hydropower by comparison has contributed much greater capacity
to China’s electricity market than wind, nuclear and solar PV power
combined. However, if the above targets are achieved by 2020, the total
installed capacity of wind and PV power would be 315 GW, close to
the expected hydropower capacity of 340 GW by 2020 (China’s 13th
Five-Year Plan on Energy Development 2016).