7 BETTING ON HYDROGEN: JAPAN’S GREEN INDUSTRIAL POLICY …
173
Conclusion
Will Japan succeed in its effort to create its hydrogen society? Will the
global industry finally fulfill the very high hopes that fuel cell proponents
have discussed for decades? Skeptics can be forgiven for feeling that we
have seen this picture before, as there have been many past periods where
hopes have been raised, only to be dashed. Many of the problems the
industry is discussing today—green production and the problems of transport and storage, for instance—are the same ones that have been discussed
for decades.
Today, however, proponents believe that technologies have developed
to the point of being commercially viable and are encouraged by the
constant stream of announcements of new technical breakthroughs and
products introduced to the market in all sectors of the energy economy.
Proponents have also been heartened by Japan’s political commitment to
support the industry. The feeling is that Japan’s past policy efforts have
been crucial in the industry’s initial progress, especially in the early R&D
stages, when companies had few incentives to invest in expensive research
on their own. Furthermore, going forward, the view is that continued
support for commercialization is necessary if enough progress is going to
be made quickly enough. As one industry participant puts it, “leaving (the
development of the hydrogen society) solely to the ingenuity and technological development of the private sector wouldn’t give us the speed
and sense of urgency needed. With the government taking the lead in
an industry-academy-government program, we should be able to speed
development by a significant margin” (Muraki 2015). 32
The final reason for optimism is that two other regional governments
have recently made similar industrial policy commitments to increase the
use of hydrogen fuel cells. The Korean government in 2018 announced
a Hydrogen Roadmap of its own, which focused on FCEVs and largescale stationary fuel cells. And China in 2019 made a huge international
splash when its government announced that it would promote the adoption of fuel cells in cars, buses, and trains. These announcements raised
the possibility that the dynamics of regional competition among these
historic rivals may also spur further interest, investment, and progress in
the industry.
The stakes involved are high, not only in terms of desperately needed
progress on combatting climate change, but also in terms of the economic
stakes that are involved. The Hydrogen Council, for instance, claims
173
Conclusion
Will Japan succeed in its effort to create its hydrogen society? Will the
global industry finally fulfill the very high hopes that fuel cell proponents
have discussed for decades? Skeptics can be forgiven for feeling that we
have seen this picture before, as there have been many past periods where
hopes have been raised, only to be dashed. Many of the problems the
industry is discussing today—green production and the problems of transport and storage, for instance—are the same ones that have been discussed
for decades.
Today, however, proponents believe that technologies have developed
to the point of being commercially viable and are encouraged by the
constant stream of announcements of new technical breakthroughs and
products introduced to the market in all sectors of the energy economy.
Proponents have also been heartened by Japan’s political commitment to
support the industry. The feeling is that Japan’s past policy efforts have
been crucial in the industry’s initial progress, especially in the early R&D
stages, when companies had few incentives to invest in expensive research
on their own. Furthermore, going forward, the view is that continued
support for commercialization is necessary if enough progress is going to
be made quickly enough. As one industry participant puts it, “leaving (the
development of the hydrogen society) solely to the ingenuity and technological development of the private sector wouldn’t give us the speed
and sense of urgency needed. With the government taking the lead in
an industry-academy-government program, we should be able to speed
development by a significant margin” (Muraki 2015). 32
The final reason for optimism is that two other regional governments
have recently made similar industrial policy commitments to increase the
use of hydrogen fuel cells. The Korean government in 2018 announced
a Hydrogen Roadmap of its own, which focused on FCEVs and largescale stationary fuel cells. And China in 2019 made a huge international
splash when its government announced that it would promote the adoption of fuel cells in cars, buses, and trains. These announcements raised
the possibility that the dynamics of regional competition among these
historic rivals may also spur further interest, investment, and progress in
the industry.
The stakes involved are high, not only in terms of desperately needed
progress on combatting climate change, but also in terms of the economic
stakes that are involved. The Hydrogen Council, for instance, claims