7 BETTING ON HYDROGEN: JAPAN’S GREEN INDUSTRIAL POLICY …
165
At the time the 2014 Road Map was published, Japan’s industry was
only just getting off the ground. Toyota introduced its first FCEV only
in December 2014, and Honda began to sell its Clarity in March of
2016. The first policy task was to increase the number of HRS in operation, which at that point numbered only 17 nationwide. The government
continued to subsidize the HRS companies, supplying some 50% of
station installation costs. The Road Map sought to bring down the costs
of building and operating an HRS, including reducing regulations in
terms of restrictions on materials and locations.
In 2019, Japan was able to reach the 130-HRS mark, so the
Roadmap’s goal of 160 stations by 2020 is within range. These efforts
were spurred by Japan H2 Mobility, an alliance of 11 Japanese companies
that promised to build 80 new HRS by 2022 (Watanabe 2014, p. 17;
Behling 2014, p. 30; METI 2017). 15 In terms of vehicle sales, Toyota’s
production of its Mirai finally reached the 10,000-unit mark in 2019, and
the company has plans to increase annual production to 30,000 units. 16
However, total sales in Japan remained far below the Road Map’s initial
targets. Public subsidies to encourage consumers to buy or lease an FCEV
will thus continue.
Japanese car makers have begun to see more growth in demand in
overseas markets, the biggest of which so far is California. Exports of
the Toyota Mirai to California began in late 2016, and by early 2018
the company had sold or leased more than 3000 units, then accounting
for more than half of its worldwide sales. These inroads were in part
spurred by the state’s impressive public–private California Fuel Cell Partnership, which has created a statewide HRS infrastructure. Similar efforts
are underway in the Northeastern US, as well as in Germany, the
UK, Denmark, South Korea, and most recently China (IEA Hydrogen
2017). 17
The industry consensus is that the FCEV enjoys even larger advantages in transportation sectors that involve longer driving ranges and
heavier payloads. A 2018 DOE analysis indicates that while small BEVs
will remain cheaper in terms of total cost of operations for the near future,
FCEVs will be less expensive for nearly all of other transportation sectors
(Green Car Congress 2018). 18 This helps to explain why a January 2018
survey of automotive executives found that 62% felt that BEVs will “fail
due to infrastructure challenges,” while 78% felt that FCEVs represent
“the real breakthrough for electric mobility,” in part because “range is
everything” (KPMG 2017, pp. 14–15). Perhaps it is not the case that the
165
At the time the 2014 Road Map was published, Japan’s industry was
only just getting off the ground. Toyota introduced its first FCEV only
in December 2014, and Honda began to sell its Clarity in March of
2016. The first policy task was to increase the number of HRS in operation, which at that point numbered only 17 nationwide. The government
continued to subsidize the HRS companies, supplying some 50% of
station installation costs. The Road Map sought to bring down the costs
of building and operating an HRS, including reducing regulations in
terms of restrictions on materials and locations.
In 2019, Japan was able to reach the 130-HRS mark, so the
Roadmap’s goal of 160 stations by 2020 is within range. These efforts
were spurred by Japan H2 Mobility, an alliance of 11 Japanese companies
that promised to build 80 new HRS by 2022 (Watanabe 2014, p. 17;
Behling 2014, p. 30; METI 2017). 15 In terms of vehicle sales, Toyota’s
production of its Mirai finally reached the 10,000-unit mark in 2019, and
the company has plans to increase annual production to 30,000 units. 16
However, total sales in Japan remained far below the Road Map’s initial
targets. Public subsidies to encourage consumers to buy or lease an FCEV
will thus continue.
Japanese car makers have begun to see more growth in demand in
overseas markets, the biggest of which so far is California. Exports of
the Toyota Mirai to California began in late 2016, and by early 2018
the company had sold or leased more than 3000 units, then accounting
for more than half of its worldwide sales. These inroads were in part
spurred by the state’s impressive public–private California Fuel Cell Partnership, which has created a statewide HRS infrastructure. Similar efforts
are underway in the Northeastern US, as well as in Germany, the
UK, Denmark, South Korea, and most recently China (IEA Hydrogen
2017). 17
The industry consensus is that the FCEV enjoys even larger advantages in transportation sectors that involve longer driving ranges and
heavier payloads. A 2018 DOE analysis indicates that while small BEVs
will remain cheaper in terms of total cost of operations for the near future,
FCEVs will be less expensive for nearly all of other transportation sectors
(Green Car Congress 2018). 18 This helps to explain why a January 2018
survey of automotive executives found that 62% felt that BEVs will “fail
due to infrastructure challenges,” while 78% felt that FCEVs represent
“the real breakthrough for electric mobility,” in part because “range is
everything” (KPMG 2017, pp. 14–15). Perhaps it is not the case that the