46
J. Wu and H. Zhao
Strategy of CASS, China’s urbanization will continue to grow in the future, with
an estimate of over 70% urban population by 2035. Urban migration will be turned
from individual to family movement. More people will migrate from individuals to
families. In addition, the Economic Blue Paper: China’s Economic Growth Report
(2018–2019)
3 pointed out that urban residents will represent about 80% of China’s
population by 2050, which will require as many as 1,050 small and medium-sized
cities with less than 500,000 people. This means that despite the slowdown in China’s
urbanization in the future, there is still vast potential for urban development. China
will form an urbanization pattern with urban agglomerations as the mainstay and
diversified development of large, medium and small cities and towns. The urban
pattern of spatial diffusion will create more development opportunities.
China is responsible for a quarter of the world’s carbon emissions, thus undertaking huge obligations for emission reduction. In order to fulfill the responsibilities
as a major power, China submitted to the United Nations “Strengthening Climate
Change Action: China’s Nationally Determined Contribution” on June 30, 2015,
which stated that: China will aim to peak CO 2 emissions around 2030 and strive
to reach an early peak; total CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP should be down by
60–65% from the level in 2005; non-fossil energy as a percentage of primary energy
consumption should reach about 20%. To materialize the goals, the State Council
formulated and issued the “Work Plan for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period” in October 2016, in which clear targes
were set: by 2020, CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP will drop by 18 compared to
2015 with total carbon emissions under effective control; support priority development areas to reach the peak ahead of others, and strive to peak emissions in
some heavy chemical industries around 2020, with fruitful progress in low-carbon
transformation of the energy system, industrial system and the consumer sector; the
national carbon emissions trading market should be launched, a framework of laws,
regulations and standards should emerge to tackle climate change, and a system of
statistical accounting, evaluation and accountability systems should be improved;
low-carbon pilots and demonstrations should be scaled up, with enhanced synergy
between pollution reduction and emission cut, and growing public awareness of low
carbon development. These commitments represent the milestones that China has
set in terms of total emissions, energy mix, low carbon pilots, etc in order to made
steady headway towrds an early peak.
By the analysis above, China will see rising urbanization as well as total carbon
emissions in the future, but at a slower pace. The time when China is expected to hit the
peak (around 2030) is close to when the country reaches a high level of urbanization
(2035), suggesting that China’s urbanization and CO 2 emission reduction not only
exhibit historical linkage, but also future connections.
For all the progress China has made in improving its eco-environment, there is
still a long way to go to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development amid rapid
urbanization. How on earth does urbanization impact carbon emissions? Are there
3 In December 2019, Economic Institute of CASS and Social Sciences Academic Press jointly
unveiled the Economic Blue Paper: China’s Economic Growth Report (2018–2019).
J. Wu and H. Zhao
Strategy of CASS, China’s urbanization will continue to grow in the future, with
an estimate of over 70% urban population by 2035. Urban migration will be turned
from individual to family movement. More people will migrate from individuals to
families. In addition, the Economic Blue Paper: China’s Economic Growth Report
(2018–2019)
3 pointed out that urban residents will represent about 80% of China’s
population by 2050, which will require as many as 1,050 small and medium-sized
cities with less than 500,000 people. This means that despite the slowdown in China’s
urbanization in the future, there is still vast potential for urban development. China
will form an urbanization pattern with urban agglomerations as the mainstay and
diversified development of large, medium and small cities and towns. The urban
pattern of spatial diffusion will create more development opportunities.
China is responsible for a quarter of the world’s carbon emissions, thus undertaking huge obligations for emission reduction. In order to fulfill the responsibilities
as a major power, China submitted to the United Nations “Strengthening Climate
Change Action: China’s Nationally Determined Contribution” on June 30, 2015,
which stated that: China will aim to peak CO 2 emissions around 2030 and strive
to reach an early peak; total CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP should be down by
60–65% from the level in 2005; non-fossil energy as a percentage of primary energy
consumption should reach about 20%. To materialize the goals, the State Council
formulated and issued the “Work Plan for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period” in October 2016, in which clear targes
were set: by 2020, CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP will drop by 18 compared to
2015 with total carbon emissions under effective control; support priority development areas to reach the peak ahead of others, and strive to peak emissions in
some heavy chemical industries around 2020, with fruitful progress in low-carbon
transformation of the energy system, industrial system and the consumer sector; the
national carbon emissions trading market should be launched, a framework of laws,
regulations and standards should emerge to tackle climate change, and a system of
statistical accounting, evaluation and accountability systems should be improved;
low-carbon pilots and demonstrations should be scaled up, with enhanced synergy
between pollution reduction and emission cut, and growing public awareness of low
carbon development. These commitments represent the milestones that China has
set in terms of total emissions, energy mix, low carbon pilots, etc in order to made
steady headway towrds an early peak.
By the analysis above, China will see rising urbanization as well as total carbon
emissions in the future, but at a slower pace. The time when China is expected to hit the
peak (around 2030) is close to when the country reaches a high level of urbanization
(2035), suggesting that China’s urbanization and CO 2 emission reduction not only
exhibit historical linkage, but also future connections.
For all the progress China has made in improving its eco-environment, there is
still a long way to go to achieve low-carbon and sustainable development amid rapid
urbanization. How on earth does urbanization impact carbon emissions? Are there
3 In December 2019, Economic Institute of CASS and Social Sciences Academic Press jointly
unveiled the Economic Blue Paper: China’s Economic Growth Report (2018–2019).