230
L. Ren et al.
enterprise in China, these were respectively 0.1 time and 0.2 time while for Baosteel,
respectively 0.1 time and 0.3 time of the national average. Emissions from sintering
were the main contributor to emissions during production.
7.1.3.2 Forecast of Iron and Steel Consumption and Switch
in Production Approach
Generally speaking, the average iron and steel stock per capita normally stays at a
saturated level between 10 and 15 t in developed economies (which is one of the
reasons for less fluctuations in the proportion of short process steelmaking in major
developed countries). Despite the rapid growth in iron and steel stock per capita
in China, it still falls short of this benchmark with an estimated 8t per capita in
2019. Therefore, China’s demand for iron and steel is expected to grow with prospering economy and improved consumption; however, Chinese researchers generally
believe that iron and steel consumption will not peak by 2020, as estimated by World
Steel Association, but after that.
According to the forecast by Energy Transformation Commission (ETC), average
annual consumption of iron and steel in China is expected to fall to around 475 Mt
by 2050, which is consistent with the 2 °C scenario in IEA report. Besides, this
research also predicts that steel in the future would increasingly derive from short
process production using recycled scrap. With an increasing number of buildings,
automobiles and other equipment approaching the end of their service life, the supply
of scrap is expected to grow at a pace of 10% annually with significant drop in prices.
The same study indicates that by 2050, 60% of total steel output in China would be
from short process steelmaking. To attain this goal, policy support is needed to ensure
maximum recycle and reuse of high-quality iron and steel. As implied by the forecast,
the annual output of crude steel in China may decline from the current 760–190 Mt by
2050. Considering the direct export or use of iron and steel in exported commodities,
China’s total output of iron and steel will hit 700 Mt by 2050 in the high demand
scenario, of which 280 Mt are from long process steelmaking (ETC 2019).
7.2 Low Carbon Technologies and Measures in Iron
and Steel Industry
In recent years, profound changes have taken place in the outside environment of iron
and steel industry in China and the world. Demands placed on iron and steel industry
has become all the more challenging with depletion of high-quality resources for
metallurgy, degradation of existing resources, price hikes in raw materials and fuels,
mounting pressure of CO 2 emission reduction and environmental burden, plus the
demand of INDC for energy efficiency and emission reduction. In this context, a
new trend of resource efficiency and environmental friendliness has emerged in the
L. Ren et al.
enterprise in China, these were respectively 0.1 time and 0.2 time while for Baosteel,
respectively 0.1 time and 0.3 time of the national average. Emissions from sintering
were the main contributor to emissions during production.
7.1.3.2 Forecast of Iron and Steel Consumption and Switch
in Production Approach
Generally speaking, the average iron and steel stock per capita normally stays at a
saturated level between 10 and 15 t in developed economies (which is one of the
reasons for less fluctuations in the proportion of short process steelmaking in major
developed countries). Despite the rapid growth in iron and steel stock per capita
in China, it still falls short of this benchmark with an estimated 8t per capita in
2019. Therefore, China’s demand for iron and steel is expected to grow with prospering economy and improved consumption; however, Chinese researchers generally
believe that iron and steel consumption will not peak by 2020, as estimated by World
Steel Association, but after that.
According to the forecast by Energy Transformation Commission (ETC), average
annual consumption of iron and steel in China is expected to fall to around 475 Mt
by 2050, which is consistent with the 2 °C scenario in IEA report. Besides, this
research also predicts that steel in the future would increasingly derive from short
process production using recycled scrap. With an increasing number of buildings,
automobiles and other equipment approaching the end of their service life, the supply
of scrap is expected to grow at a pace of 10% annually with significant drop in prices.
The same study indicates that by 2050, 60% of total steel output in China would be
from short process steelmaking. To attain this goal, policy support is needed to ensure
maximum recycle and reuse of high-quality iron and steel. As implied by the forecast,
the annual output of crude steel in China may decline from the current 760–190 Mt by
2050. Considering the direct export or use of iron and steel in exported commodities,
China’s total output of iron and steel will hit 700 Mt by 2050 in the high demand
scenario, of which 280 Mt are from long process steelmaking (ETC 2019).
7.2 Low Carbon Technologies and Measures in Iron
and Steel Industry
In recent years, profound changes have taken place in the outside environment of iron
and steel industry in China and the world. Demands placed on iron and steel industry
has become all the more challenging with depletion of high-quality resources for
metallurgy, degradation of existing resources, price hikes in raw materials and fuels,
mounting pressure of CO 2 emission reduction and environmental burden, plus the
demand of INDC for energy efficiency and emission reduction. In this context, a
new trend of resource efficiency and environmental friendliness has emerged in the