190
W. Cai et al.
5.3.4.1 Data Basis and Methodology
Assessment of water resources risk from the future development of the power sector
requires data of water demand of coal-fired power plants and regional distribution
of water resources. This study has built a database of over 98% of the installed
capacity of coal-fired power plants currently in operation in China, which consists of
geographical location, operation status, technical parameters, water withdrawal data,
etc. In addition, information of power units under planning or awaiting construction
has also been collected for the sake of new coal power plants in the future. The total
installed capacity of coal-fired power plants in the database has exceeded 1960 GW,
over twice the size in 2015, which could be used for mapping out the potential
distribution of such plants in future. As complementary information, data of gasfired power plants is also embedded in the database. All these data, coupled with the
provincial power demand calculated with MESEIC model elaborated in Sect. 3.2, the
geographical distribution of future water demand from coal-fired power generation
can be obtained. It should be noted, however, air cooling is adopted for all new power
units in northwest China.
Data from Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas developed by World Resources Institute is
used in the forecast of water resources. The data consists of estimated water resources
of different catchments under varied climate scenarios (Representative Concentration
Pathways, RCP). The available water resources (Ba) in the database refers to the
total amount of water in a catchment before withdrawal, calculated by runoff from
upstream minus water consumed upstream plus runoff within the catchment, where
the historical annual runoff is the annual average from 1950 to 2010. A simulated
forcast of future water resources under the four climate models is conducted on this
basis.
In this study, Water Stress Index (WSI) is adopted to measure the impact of water
withdrawn by the power industry on the local water resources in a given region.
Water stress is expressed as the ration between water withdrawn from a certain
region and the available water resources there. Meanwhile, given the uncertainty of
geographical location of future power plants, Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to
obtain the probability distribution of coal-fired power plants in a given region and to
grasp its water stress risk.
5.3.4.2 Analysis on Water Resources Risk in Future Development
of China’s Power Sector
(1) Water Stress Impact from Changed Cooling Method in Current Coal-Fired
Power Units
Coal-fired power units in northern China as described in Sect. 3.2.3 still boast
potential to reduce water demand by renovating the cooling technique. Changes
resulting from renovating air cooling system in the existing coal-fired power
plants in northern China are illustrated. In 2015, considerable water stress was
produced in some regions in north and northwest China despite the replacement
W. Cai et al.
5.3.4.1 Data Basis and Methodology
Assessment of water resources risk from the future development of the power sector
requires data of water demand of coal-fired power plants and regional distribution
of water resources. This study has built a database of over 98% of the installed
capacity of coal-fired power plants currently in operation in China, which consists of
geographical location, operation status, technical parameters, water withdrawal data,
etc. In addition, information of power units under planning or awaiting construction
has also been collected for the sake of new coal power plants in the future. The total
installed capacity of coal-fired power plants in the database has exceeded 1960 GW,
over twice the size in 2015, which could be used for mapping out the potential
distribution of such plants in future. As complementary information, data of gasfired power plants is also embedded in the database. All these data, coupled with the
provincial power demand calculated with MESEIC model elaborated in Sect. 3.2, the
geographical distribution of future water demand from coal-fired power generation
can be obtained. It should be noted, however, air cooling is adopted for all new power
units in northwest China.
Data from Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas developed by World Resources Institute is
used in the forecast of water resources. The data consists of estimated water resources
of different catchments under varied climate scenarios (Representative Concentration
Pathways, RCP). The available water resources (Ba) in the database refers to the
total amount of water in a catchment before withdrawal, calculated by runoff from
upstream minus water consumed upstream plus runoff within the catchment, where
the historical annual runoff is the annual average from 1950 to 2010. A simulated
forcast of future water resources under the four climate models is conducted on this
basis.
In this study, Water Stress Index (WSI) is adopted to measure the impact of water
withdrawn by the power industry on the local water resources in a given region.
Water stress is expressed as the ration between water withdrawn from a certain
region and the available water resources there. Meanwhile, given the uncertainty of
geographical location of future power plants, Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to
obtain the probability distribution of coal-fired power plants in a given region and to
grasp its water stress risk.
5.3.4.2 Analysis on Water Resources Risk in Future Development
of China’s Power Sector
(1) Water Stress Impact from Changed Cooling Method in Current Coal-Fired
Power Units
Coal-fired power units in northern China as described in Sect. 3.2.3 still boast
potential to reduce water demand by renovating the cooling technique. Changes
resulting from renovating air cooling system in the existing coal-fired power
plants in northern China are illustrated. In 2015, considerable water stress was
produced in some regions in north and northwest China despite the replacement