102
Z. Lu and G. Zhu
energy revolution. The Strategy stated that: (1) China aims to keep energy consumption within equivalent to 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020, non-fossil energy
will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and natural gas will make up at
least 10%; (2) China will keep energy consumption within equivalent to 6 billion tons
of standard coal between 2021 and 2030, non-fossil energy will represent roughly
20% of primary energy consumption, natural gas 15%, and 50% of power generation
will be derived from non-fossil sources; (3) by 2050, total energy consumption will
be basically stable and non-fossil energy will contribute over 50%.
It can be seen that the rising share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption and the ensuing energy transition hold the key to China’s energy revolution. The
goal of delivering 50% of the power through renewables by 2030 stated in the Strategy
serves as a key benchmark for the future development of China’s power system, and
something that must be accommodated in developing the country’s new-generation
power system.
The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is a core metric for
China’s energy transition. Electricity is a secondary energy source derived from the
primary energy sources. Power generated from non-fossil fuels hit 1.5 trillion kWh in
China in 2015. Given that the average amount of coal consumed for thermal power
generation in the year stood at 315 g/kWh, total primary energy consumption for
power generation would amount to 472.5 million tons of standard coal equivalent
(tce), or 11% of the 4.3 billion tce consumed in the whole year, just 1 percentage
point of the national share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption (12%)
in the same year. In 2016, power generated from non-fossil fuels grew to 1.7 trillion
kWh. Given that the average amount of coal consumed for thermal power generation
in the year stood at 312 g/kWh, primary energy consumption for power generation
would total 530.4 million tce, or 12.3% of the 4.36 billion tce consumed in the whole
year, which was also 1 percentage point short of the national share of non-fossil fuels
in primary energy consumption (13.3%) in the same year. The conversion of nearly
90% of the non-fossil fuels into electricity has cemented the dominant position of
power in the use of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption in China, spurred
the production and consumption of the country’s non-fossil energy, and invigorated
the strategic transition of its energy system. Therefore, a marked increase in the share
of power from non-fossil fuels and the formation of a non-fossil-centric power mix
would underpin China’s energy transition, and stand as a tangible testament to the
country’s power transition and the development of a new-generation power system.
The EU, the US and China have outlined their blueprint of 100%, 80% and 60%
renewable power system respectively by 2050. The power system will undergo major
shift under the new scheme. Randomly fluctuating solar and wind energy will constitute the bulk of power generation, baseload power plants will gradually bow out of
the stage, and conventional thermal generation units will adopt a daily start-and-stop
regime. In the meantime, gas-fired stations, pumped-storage hydro power plants and
energy storage devices will be utilized to compensate for the random fluctuations of
weather-driven renewable energy. Flexibility will be at the heart of the planning and
operation of power systems.
Z. Lu and G. Zhu
energy revolution. The Strategy stated that: (1) China aims to keep energy consumption within equivalent to 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020, non-fossil energy
will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, and natural gas will make up at
least 10%; (2) China will keep energy consumption within equivalent to 6 billion tons
of standard coal between 2021 and 2030, non-fossil energy will represent roughly
20% of primary energy consumption, natural gas 15%, and 50% of power generation
will be derived from non-fossil sources; (3) by 2050, total energy consumption will
be basically stable and non-fossil energy will contribute over 50%.
It can be seen that the rising share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption and the ensuing energy transition hold the key to China’s energy revolution. The
goal of delivering 50% of the power through renewables by 2030 stated in the Strategy
serves as a key benchmark for the future development of China’s power system, and
something that must be accommodated in developing the country’s new-generation
power system.
The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is a core metric for
China’s energy transition. Electricity is a secondary energy source derived from the
primary energy sources. Power generated from non-fossil fuels hit 1.5 trillion kWh in
China in 2015. Given that the average amount of coal consumed for thermal power
generation in the year stood at 315 g/kWh, total primary energy consumption for
power generation would amount to 472.5 million tons of standard coal equivalent
(tce), or 11% of the 4.3 billion tce consumed in the whole year, just 1 percentage
point of the national share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption (12%)
in the same year. In 2016, power generated from non-fossil fuels grew to 1.7 trillion
kWh. Given that the average amount of coal consumed for thermal power generation
in the year stood at 312 g/kWh, primary energy consumption for power generation
would total 530.4 million tce, or 12.3% of the 4.36 billion tce consumed in the whole
year, which was also 1 percentage point short of the national share of non-fossil fuels
in primary energy consumption (13.3%) in the same year. The conversion of nearly
90% of the non-fossil fuels into electricity has cemented the dominant position of
power in the use of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption in China, spurred
the production and consumption of the country’s non-fossil energy, and invigorated
the strategic transition of its energy system. Therefore, a marked increase in the share
of power from non-fossil fuels and the formation of a non-fossil-centric power mix
would underpin China’s energy transition, and stand as a tangible testament to the
country’s power transition and the development of a new-generation power system.
The EU, the US and China have outlined their blueprint of 100%, 80% and 60%
renewable power system respectively by 2050. The power system will undergo major
shift under the new scheme. Randomly fluctuating solar and wind energy will constitute the bulk of power generation, baseload power plants will gradually bow out of
the stage, and conventional thermal generation units will adopt a daily start-and-stop
regime. In the meantime, gas-fired stations, pumped-storage hydro power plants and
energy storage devices will be utilized to compensate for the random fluctuations of
weather-driven renewable energy. Flexibility will be at the heart of the planning and
operation of power systems.