3 PAIRING COAL WITH SOLAR: THE UAE’S FRAGMENTED …
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be overcome, the UAE appears destined to continued dependence on
fossil fuel, including coal.
Solar installations have received outsized attention but had not, as
of the end of 2019, contributed a material part of the UAE’s power
output. Going forward, contributions of solar will increase as plants under
construction are completed and connected to the grid. If plants produce
as advertised over the current decade, the realization of investment plans
could push the UAE into a clean energy leadership position in the Middle
East, albeit one tarnished by coal. It remained to be seen whether the
response to COVID-19 resulted in project delays or cancellations.
The UAE’s domestic solar projects have brought reputational and softpower benefits, as have its overseas renewables investments. 75 Continued
cost reductions in renewable energy, alongside flattening growth in
domestic power demand, should enable PV solar to act as a fuel-saving
daytime substitute for imported natural gas. It will take improvements
to solar’s dispatchability to allow it to substitute for the UAE’s fossil
generation capacity, particularly during peak periods after dark.
The prestige aspects of solar power are evident in Dubai’s naming of a
large solar initiative after its ruler, while the emirate’s even larger coal-fired
power investments are downplayed and misleadingly labeled as ‘clean.’
The ‘greenwashing’ of a carbon-intensive electricity strategy carries risks.
The specter of an oil-rich emirate free-riding on climate actions elsewhere
could generate sufficient opprobrium among the global public to expose
the UAE to hostile actions such as boycotts, sanctions, trade penalties
and other types of political and regulatory action from governments, nongovernment organizations, or international agencies.
Elsewhere, coal firms and government backers are coming under pressure from climate change movements to halt coal investment and reduce
use of existing assets. It is hard to imagine the UAE evading international pressure over its coal pursuits, given the typical 40-year operating
lifetime that could see Hassyan producing electricity until 2060. By that
date, continued warming in the Gulf region could present life-threatening
summer temperatures that might even trigger domestic opposition to coal
use. 76 The combined trajectories of technological change in the power
sector, physical changes in the climate, and pressure from the international
public for action, could render carbon-intense assets stranded. 77
High carbon intensity could also reduce the UAE’s competitiveness in
attracting foreign direct investment. As large multinationals pursue carbon
reductions in their supply chains, they are igniting competition among
81
be overcome, the UAE appears destined to continued dependence on
fossil fuel, including coal.
Solar installations have received outsized attention but had not, as
of the end of 2019, contributed a material part of the UAE’s power
output. Going forward, contributions of solar will increase as plants under
construction are completed and connected to the grid. If plants produce
as advertised over the current decade, the realization of investment plans
could push the UAE into a clean energy leadership position in the Middle
East, albeit one tarnished by coal. It remained to be seen whether the
response to COVID-19 resulted in project delays or cancellations.
The UAE’s domestic solar projects have brought reputational and softpower benefits, as have its overseas renewables investments. 75 Continued
cost reductions in renewable energy, alongside flattening growth in
domestic power demand, should enable PV solar to act as a fuel-saving
daytime substitute for imported natural gas. It will take improvements
to solar’s dispatchability to allow it to substitute for the UAE’s fossil
generation capacity, particularly during peak periods after dark.
The prestige aspects of solar power are evident in Dubai’s naming of a
large solar initiative after its ruler, while the emirate’s even larger coal-fired
power investments are downplayed and misleadingly labeled as ‘clean.’
The ‘greenwashing’ of a carbon-intensive electricity strategy carries risks.
The specter of an oil-rich emirate free-riding on climate actions elsewhere
could generate sufficient opprobrium among the global public to expose
the UAE to hostile actions such as boycotts, sanctions, trade penalties
and other types of political and regulatory action from governments, nongovernment organizations, or international agencies.
Elsewhere, coal firms and government backers are coming under pressure from climate change movements to halt coal investment and reduce
use of existing assets. It is hard to imagine the UAE evading international pressure over its coal pursuits, given the typical 40-year operating
lifetime that could see Hassyan producing electricity until 2060. By that
date, continued warming in the Gulf region could present life-threatening
summer temperatures that might even trigger domestic opposition to coal
use. 76 The combined trajectories of technological change in the power
sector, physical changes in the climate, and pressure from the international
public for action, could render carbon-intense assets stranded. 77
High carbon intensity could also reduce the UAE’s competitiveness in
attracting foreign direct investment. As large multinationals pursue carbon
reductions in their supply chains, they are igniting competition among