3 PAIRING COAL WITH SOLAR: THE UAE’S FRAGMENTED …
79
Fig. 3.7 UAE air quality data from The World Bank’s “Little Green Data
Book,” p. 219 (2015); https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han
dle/10986/22025/9781464805608.pdf
conflicts and proxy wars. The fact that Abu Dhabi has begun taking an
active role in these conflicts exacerbates risks to its gas supply. Global coal
reserves by contrast are so large and geographically dispersed that opportunities for political interference are limited. The fact that 99.9% of the
world’s coal is produced outside the Middle East 66 may actually enhance
its attractiveness.
Cost factors are coal’s second advantage. Dubai has managed to
procure an extraordinarily low power purchase price for dispatchable
coal-fired power. The tariff promised by the Hassyan plant’s Chinese-led
consortium was just 4.24 US cents per kWh at 2015 coal prices. 67 That
price is slightly lower than those obtained in recent tenders for CCGT
plants. 68 Estimates of Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear plant’s LCOE, by
contrast, run around 7 or 8 US cents per kWh. 69 As mentioned, however,
Hassyan’s cost analyses looked competitive with higher priced gas and
renewables at the time planners made the final investment decision.
Third, coal can provide a source of baseload generation that can
substitute for the UAE’s natural gas-fired plants. Intermittent renewables
cannot provide firm, dispatchable capacity without expensive add-ons,
such as battery storage, pumped hydro storage, or gas backup. As such,
coal represents an attractive alternative for times when gas is expensive or
unavailable.
Coal may be dispatchable, but it does present a major disadvantage.
Modern gas turbines can vary output within minutes. A gas ‘peaker’ plant
can start up and dispatch power with an hour’s notice. Coal’s typical 8hour startup makes it less appropriate for synergizing with renewables
which vary their production based on weather.
Fourth, the Hassyan project represents a major overture to China, part
of a growing strategic bilateral engagement. Political elites in the UAE
79
Fig. 3.7 UAE air quality data from The World Bank’s “Little Green Data
Book,” p. 219 (2015); https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/han
dle/10986/22025/9781464805608.pdf
conflicts and proxy wars. The fact that Abu Dhabi has begun taking an
active role in these conflicts exacerbates risks to its gas supply. Global coal
reserves by contrast are so large and geographically dispersed that opportunities for political interference are limited. The fact that 99.9% of the
world’s coal is produced outside the Middle East 66 may actually enhance
its attractiveness.
Cost factors are coal’s second advantage. Dubai has managed to
procure an extraordinarily low power purchase price for dispatchable
coal-fired power. The tariff promised by the Hassyan plant’s Chinese-led
consortium was just 4.24 US cents per kWh at 2015 coal prices. 67 That
price is slightly lower than those obtained in recent tenders for CCGT
plants. 68 Estimates of Abu Dhabi’s Barakah nuclear plant’s LCOE, by
contrast, run around 7 or 8 US cents per kWh. 69 As mentioned, however,
Hassyan’s cost analyses looked competitive with higher priced gas and
renewables at the time planners made the final investment decision.
Third, coal can provide a source of baseload generation that can
substitute for the UAE’s natural gas-fired plants. Intermittent renewables
cannot provide firm, dispatchable capacity without expensive add-ons,
such as battery storage, pumped hydro storage, or gas backup. As such,
coal represents an attractive alternative for times when gas is expensive or
unavailable.
Coal may be dispatchable, but it does present a major disadvantage.
Modern gas turbines can vary output within minutes. A gas ‘peaker’ plant
can start up and dispatch power with an hour’s notice. Coal’s typical 8hour startup makes it less appropriate for synergizing with renewables
which vary their production based on weather.
Fourth, the Hassyan project represents a major overture to China, part
of a growing strategic bilateral engagement. Political elites in the UAE