264 L.-C. SIM
Less heralded is the contribution of nuclear-fuelled electricity to electricity demand. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), the 17 TWh or 2.1% of total electricity production currently
produced by nuclear power plants in the Middle East and Africa may
rise to 163–316 TWh or 6–12% of total electricity production by 2050. 4
Joining Iran’s Bushehr unit 1 (1 gigawatt or GW of installed generation capacity) will be MENA’s newest nuclear plant in the United Arab
Emirates (5.6 GW), which began commercial operations in 2020. Other
nuclear newcomers include Turkey (4.8 GW) which is in the early stages
of construction at Akkuyu and Egypt (4.8 GW) which has awarded
tenders for phase one of the El-Dabaa project but is still in the preconstruction phase. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are drawing up
plans for nuclear power.
The logic of using nuclear energy to power growth in MENA deserves
closer attention for several reasons:
• It appears to be somewhat counter-intuitive on several grounds.
A new nuclear plant is characterized by long lead times and high
financial costs compared to utility-scale solar or wind. Its contribution to environmental sustainability is ambiguous; although it emits
the lowest level of greenhouse gas among all major energy production options, it faces significant waste and water withdrawal issues. 5
Nuclear energy promises to provide relative energy independence
but could result in increased dependencies on the vendor in host
countries without indigenous manpower to operate nuclear plants.
• Enthusiasm for nuclear energy cuts across traditional political,
economic, and social cleavages in MENA. These include net energy
importers versus exporters, income level, population size, type of
political system, degree of economic diversification, and attitudes
towards political Islam. Turkey, for example, is a net energy importer
with a population of 80 million, a gross domestic product (GDP)
per capita of $10,500, and an electoral democracy dominated by
the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP). In contrast, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a net energy exporter with a population of 9.4 million, a GDP per capita of $40,700, and an absolute
monarchy. The leadership of both countries, however, desire an
indigenous nuclear power capability.
• The choice of reactor vendor and fuel supplier has geopolitical implications. This is because several nuclear newcomers in the region,
Less heralded is the contribution of nuclear-fuelled electricity to electricity demand. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), the 17 TWh or 2.1% of total electricity production currently
produced by nuclear power plants in the Middle East and Africa may
rise to 163–316 TWh or 6–12% of total electricity production by 2050. 4
Joining Iran’s Bushehr unit 1 (1 gigawatt or GW of installed generation capacity) will be MENA’s newest nuclear plant in the United Arab
Emirates (5.6 GW), which began commercial operations in 2020. Other
nuclear newcomers include Turkey (4.8 GW) which is in the early stages
of construction at Akkuyu and Egypt (4.8 GW) which has awarded
tenders for phase one of the El-Dabaa project but is still in the preconstruction phase. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are drawing up
plans for nuclear power.
The logic of using nuclear energy to power growth in MENA deserves
closer attention for several reasons:
• It appears to be somewhat counter-intuitive on several grounds.
A new nuclear plant is characterized by long lead times and high
financial costs compared to utility-scale solar or wind. Its contribution to environmental sustainability is ambiguous; although it emits
the lowest level of greenhouse gas among all major energy production options, it faces significant waste and water withdrawal issues. 5
Nuclear energy promises to provide relative energy independence
but could result in increased dependencies on the vendor in host
countries without indigenous manpower to operate nuclear plants.
• Enthusiasm for nuclear energy cuts across traditional political,
economic, and social cleavages in MENA. These include net energy
importers versus exporters, income level, population size, type of
political system, degree of economic diversification, and attitudes
towards political Islam. Turkey, for example, is a net energy importer
with a population of 80 million, a gross domestic product (GDP)
per capita of $10,500, and an electoral democracy dominated by
the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP). In contrast, the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a net energy exporter with a population of 9.4 million, a GDP per capita of $40,700, and an absolute
monarchy. The leadership of both countries, however, desire an
indigenous nuclear power capability.
• The choice of reactor vendor and fuel supplier has geopolitical implications. This is because several nuclear newcomers in the region,