Chapter 7
Comparison of the First Waves
of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Different
Countries and Regions
In this chapter, we will compare and discuss the characteristics of the first waves of the
COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, USA, Germany, the UK, the Republic of
Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the city of
Kyiv and in the world, calculated in the previous chapter. Some results were published
in [75, 77, 89]. The pandemic dynamics in different WHO regions will be discussed.
Some results of SIR simulations performed in previous chapter are summarized
in Table 7.1. We have used the predictions corresponding to the smallest value of
the relative error e (see Eq. (4.20)) or the latest period T c (the corresponding the
data sets V j and t j were taken for calculations). In this chapter, we will use the
characteristics introduced in previous Chapters. In particular, V f is the real accumulated number of cases registered on the moment of time corresponding to the
final day of the first wave t final (Eq. (4.17)); the duration of the epidemics in days
T d ¼ t final À t
Ã
1 (Eq. 4.24); the estimation of the average time of spreading the
infection s ¼ 1=q (in days); saturation level (or final size of the first wave) V 1
(Eq. (4.16). For comparisons, we will use the accumulated number of COVID-19
cases V A registered on September 26, 2020, [86]. In Table 7.1, the volume of
population N pop and the values of parameter N are shown in millions; values V 1 , V f
and V A in thousands; a in (day)
−1 .
Table 7.1 and Fig. 7.1 demonstrate the absolute values of parameters taken from
Chap. 6 and Internet (for the volumes of population N pop in different countries and
regions). In Fig. 7.1, the dependences a (“stars”) and V 1 (“circles”) versus values
of N pop are shown (data points for China and South Korea are shown by “triangles”). It is seen that final size of the first wave V 1 increases with increasing N pop
and the parameter a decreases. In the logarithmic scale, both dependences are close
to linear (especially if we remove data points for China and South Korea).
We can try to find the best fitting lines for dependences
a ¼ rN
v
pop
ð7:1Þ
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_7
89
Comparison of the First Waves
of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Different
Countries and Regions
In this chapter, we will compare and discuss the characteristics of the first waves of the
COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, USA, Germany, the UK, the Republic of
Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine, the city of
Kyiv and in the world, calculated in the previous chapter. Some results were published
in [75, 77, 89]. The pandemic dynamics in different WHO regions will be discussed.
Some results of SIR simulations performed in previous chapter are summarized
in Table 7.1. We have used the predictions corresponding to the smallest value of
the relative error e (see Eq. (4.20)) or the latest period T c (the corresponding the
data sets V j and t j were taken for calculations). In this chapter, we will use the
characteristics introduced in previous Chapters. In particular, V f is the real accumulated number of cases registered on the moment of time corresponding to the
final day of the first wave t final (Eq. (4.17)); the duration of the epidemics in days
T d ¼ t final À t
Ã
1 (Eq. 4.24); the estimation of the average time of spreading the
infection s ¼ 1=q (in days); saturation level (or final size of the first wave) V 1
(Eq. (4.16). For comparisons, we will use the accumulated number of COVID-19
cases V A registered on September 26, 2020, [86]. In Table 7.1, the volume of
population N pop and the values of parameter N are shown in millions; values V 1 , V f
and V A in thousands; a in (day)
−1 .
Table 7.1 and Fig. 7.1 demonstrate the absolute values of parameters taken from
Chap. 6 and Internet (for the volumes of population N pop in different countries and
regions). In Fig. 7.1, the dependences a (“stars”) and V 1 (“circles”) versus values
of N pop are shown (data points for China and South Korea are shown by “triangles”). It is seen that final size of the first wave V 1 increases with increasing N pop
and the parameter a decreases. In the logarithmic scale, both dependences are close
to linear (especially if we remove data points for China and South Korea).
We can try to find the best fitting lines for dependences
a ¼ rN
v
pop
ð7:1Þ
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_7
89