Table 6.4
Predictions 1–4 for the
first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
Number of prediction/optimal values of
parameters, characteristics
Prediction 1
Period taken for
calculations
T
c : March
5–22, 2020
Prediction 2
Period taken for
calculations
T
c : March
10–30, 2020
Prediction 3
Period taken for
calculations
T
c : March 10–April
5, 2020
Prediction 4
Period taken for
calculations
T
c : March 16–April
5, 2020
N
534,656
669,312
723,763.2
738,240
m
476,712.7441113
598,876.49226424
646,709.93100256
658,709.4638592
a
3.47467962e-06
2.589545071e-06
2.2076760085e-06
2.0049693740e-06
t
Ã
1
−18.3797687613
−22.039683744
−25.171859952631 −28.810667619253
q
1.656424058815
1.5508176688225
1.4277259991363
1.3206923014088
1=q
0.603710139730
0.6448211289462
0.7004145057279
0.7571786395160
t
j1
12
17
17
23
t
j2
29
37
43
43
n
18
21
27
21
r
0.999378228510
0.999725363341
0.9992432785563
0.9992024895
F, Eq. (2.9)
12,854.46446586
34,576.908427910
16,499.880328838
11,897.820763752
F C
ð1; n À 2Þ
16.2
15.2
13.9
15.2
F=F C
ð1; n À 2Þ
793.4854608556
2274.7966070993
1187.0417502761
782.75136603635
S
1 , Eq. (4.9)
423,108
533,558
575,323
585,100
V
1 , Eq. (4.16)
111,548
135,754
148,441
153,140
t final , Eq. (4.17)
79.5
87.8
93.9
98.8
Final day of the
first wave
May 12, 2020
May 20, 2020
May 26, 2020
May 31, 2020
V
f , taken from [1]
221,216
227,364
230,555
233,019
e, Eq. (4.20)
49.6%
40.3%
35.6%
34.3%
Optimal values of parameters and other SIR model characteristics
6.3 Italy
49