Figure 6.8 demonstrates that the epidemic in Italy developed much more rapid than
it was in China. Thus, the application of SIR model allowed predicting the higher
final number of cases in Italy already on March 3, 2020, when the preprint [50] was
submitted.
The first SIR simulation for Italy was published in [38] with the use of data
presented in Tables 2.1 or 6.5. Usually, the number of cases during the initial
period of an epidemic outbreak is not reliable, since many cases are not detected
(see, e.g., Fig. 6.6). To avoid their influence on the results, only V j values for the
period March 5–22, 2020 (12 t j 29), were used for calculations (see “circles” in
Fig. 6.9). Other points were used only for comparison (“triangles”) and verification
of predictions (“stars”). The use of data corresponding to the initial stage of the
epidemic (“circles” and “triangles” together) did not yield a stable reliable prediction. The calculated optimal values of parameters are presented in Table 6.4
(prediction 1).
According to this prediction, in Italy more people were expected to be infected
(V 1 % 111; 548) in comparison with mainland China, where the saturation level
V 1 % 81; 257 was predicted in [69] on March 4, 2020 (see Sect. 6.1). According to
this estimation, we can expect that local transmission of the epidemic in Italy was
expected to stop only after May 12, 2020, provided that quarantine measures of
period T c would continue until mid-May.
It was also possible to calculate the value of parameter q ¼ ma ¼ 1:6564 and the
inverse value 1=q ¼ 0:6037. Thus, the average time of spreading the infection in
Italy was estimated as 14.5 h. By comparison, in South Korea it was estimated to be
Fig. 6.8 Comparison of the early stage of the epidemic dynamics in Italy with the corresponding
SIR curve for mainland China. Number of victims V = I + R (blue line) versus time in days (zero
point is January 16, 2020) estimated in [50] for the mainland China; “triangles” represent the
official data set for China (see Table 1.2); “squares”—the cumulative number of cases in Wuhan
calculated with the information presented in [6] (see Table 1.2); “stars”—to the points corresponding to the epidemic in Italy ([1], Table 3.1) with the corresponding time shift
6.3 Italy
47
it was in China. Thus, the application of SIR model allowed predicting the higher
final number of cases in Italy already on March 3, 2020, when the preprint [50] was
submitted.
The first SIR simulation for Italy was published in [38] with the use of data
presented in Tables 2.1 or 6.5. Usually, the number of cases during the initial
period of an epidemic outbreak is not reliable, since many cases are not detected
(see, e.g., Fig. 6.6). To avoid their influence on the results, only V j values for the
period March 5–22, 2020 (12 t j 29), were used for calculations (see “circles” in
Fig. 6.9). Other points were used only for comparison (“triangles”) and verification
of predictions (“stars”). The use of data corresponding to the initial stage of the
epidemic (“circles” and “triangles” together) did not yield a stable reliable prediction. The calculated optimal values of parameters are presented in Table 6.4
(prediction 1).
According to this prediction, in Italy more people were expected to be infected
(V 1 % 111; 548) in comparison with mainland China, where the saturation level
V 1 % 81; 257 was predicted in [69] on March 4, 2020 (see Sect. 6.1). According to
this estimation, we can expect that local transmission of the epidemic in Italy was
expected to stop only after May 12, 2020, provided that quarantine measures of
period T c would continue until mid-May.
It was also possible to calculate the value of parameter q ¼ ma ¼ 1:6564 and the
inverse value 1=q ¼ 0:6037. Thus, the average time of spreading the infection in
Italy was estimated as 14.5 h. By comparison, in South Korea it was estimated to be
Fig. 6.8 Comparison of the early stage of the epidemic dynamics in Italy with the corresponding
SIR curve for mainland China. Number of victims V = I + R (blue line) versus time in days (zero
point is January 16, 2020) estimated in [50] for the mainland China; “triangles” represent the
official data set for China (see Table 1.2); “squares”—the cumulative number of cases in Wuhan
calculated with the information presented in [6] (see Table 1.2); “stars”—to the points corresponding to the epidemic in Italy ([1], Table 3.1) with the corresponding time shift
6.3 Italy
47