We have used the official data sets from [1] to compare the pandemic dynamics
in Ukraine and its neighboring countries (see Table 3.2). The day of the first case
appearance was taken as the zero day of the epidemic in each country. This simple
method allows comparing epidemic dynamics in different countries with different
days of the epidemic outbreak. The results are shown in Figs. 3.3 and 3.4 with the
use of different scales. “Stars” represent the accumulated number of cases for EU
countries; “circles” show the figures for other countries. Figure 3.3 illustrates that
the highest number of cases was confirmed in Poland, Romania and Russian
Federation (RF). We can compare the number of cases for the fixed day from the
epidemic outbreak (e.g., 14th day, when the information from all the countries is
available). The most rapid increase occurred in Poland, Slovakia, and the Republic
of Moldova.
If we assess the situation in Ukraine only by the number of cases on the 14th day
of the epidemic, it did not look so alarming. But the use of the logarithmic scale
shows that the number of cases in Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Belarus and
RF was still growing exponentially (the reference points in Fig. 3.4 follow straight
lines). In Ukraine, this growth was the fastest. The further development of the
pandemic showed that it was these exponential increases that led to a large number
of COVID-19 cases in Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and RF. As of September 26,
2020 (see WHO weekly update report [52]), the number of cases in Ukraine
(198,634) exceeded those in Romania (121,235), Poland (85,980), Belarus
(77,289), and Moldova (50,534). As of September 26, numbers of cases in Hungary
(24,014) and Slovakia (8600) were the lowest, and in RF (1,151,438) this figure
was the highest. The relatively slow epidemic development in Ukraine, Moldova,
Belarus, and RF between March 3 and March 21, 2020, can be explained by the fact
Fig. 3.2 Synchronized data sets for the accumulated confirmed number of cases versus time in
days from the beginning of the epidemic outbreaks
3 Comparisons of the Early Stages of the COVID-19 …
19
in Ukraine and its neighboring countries (see Table 3.2). The day of the first case
appearance was taken as the zero day of the epidemic in each country. This simple
method allows comparing epidemic dynamics in different countries with different
days of the epidemic outbreak. The results are shown in Figs. 3.3 and 3.4 with the
use of different scales. “Stars” represent the accumulated number of cases for EU
countries; “circles” show the figures for other countries. Figure 3.3 illustrates that
the highest number of cases was confirmed in Poland, Romania and Russian
Federation (RF). We can compare the number of cases for the fixed day from the
epidemic outbreak (e.g., 14th day, when the information from all the countries is
available). The most rapid increase occurred in Poland, Slovakia, and the Republic
of Moldova.
If we assess the situation in Ukraine only by the number of cases on the 14th day
of the epidemic, it did not look so alarming. But the use of the logarithmic scale
shows that the number of cases in Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Belarus and
RF was still growing exponentially (the reference points in Fig. 3.4 follow straight
lines). In Ukraine, this growth was the fastest. The further development of the
pandemic showed that it was these exponential increases that led to a large number
of COVID-19 cases in Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and RF. As of September 26,
2020 (see WHO weekly update report [52]), the number of cases in Ukraine
(198,634) exceeded those in Romania (121,235), Poland (85,980), Belarus
(77,289), and Moldova (50,534). As of September 26, numbers of cases in Hungary
(24,014) and Slovakia (8600) were the lowest, and in RF (1,151,438) this figure
was the highest. The relatively slow epidemic development in Ukraine, Moldova,
Belarus, and RF between March 3 and March 21, 2020, can be explained by the fact
Fig. 3.2 Synchronized data sets for the accumulated confirmed number of cases versus time in
days from the beginning of the epidemic outbreaks
3 Comparisons of the Early Stages of the COVID-19 …
19