of Kyiv and the whole world. The results show that smoothing the dependence of
the accumulated number of cases and its differentiation can provide fairly accurate
and useful information about the course of the epidemic, identify important changes
in its dynamics and provide timely recommendations for quarantine measures or
control of social distancing.
To simulate different pandemic waves (periods with more or less constant values
of its dynamics parameters), a new general SIR model and its exact solution have
been proposed. Two procedures of its parameters identification were developed and
successfully applied to calculate the characteristics of several pandemic waves in
Ukraine and the world.
Due to the incomplete number of detected cases and permanent changes in
pandemic dynamics, SIR simulations must be updated using new data sets in order
to have good accuracy of predictions. The number of observations has to be large
enough, since all the conclusions are based on corresponding data sets. To avoid
complicated calculations and to obtain some predictions immediately after the
beginning of a new wave, simple estimations for the final size of a pandemic wave
and its duration were proposed and applied for USA, Germany, the UK, the
Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Sweden,
Ukraine, the city of Kyiv and the whole world.
The pandemic duration projections are unfortunately not optimistic. None of the
countries would overcome the current wave of the epidemic in 2020. In Germany
and Italy, it can last until the autumn of 2021, in the United States until the end of
2022. The final size of the recent pandemic wave can exceed 100 millions victims
in the world. All the calculations given in this book gave only underestimated
values in relation to the number of cases. We hope that effective quarantine measures and successful vaccination will be able to reverse this trend.
Very long duration of the pandemic requires correction of our behavior, we
cannot live as before it occurred. Decreased feelings of insecurity and
non-compliance with social distancing may further increase the pandemic duration
and the number of the coronavirus victims. Total closure of settlements or regions
can be recommended only in the event of a sharp increase in the number of cases.
There are many things that can be done without loss to the economy and our daily
lives:
1. Minimize the number of contacts and trips, do not visit crowded places. Work
and study remotely where possible.
2. Refrain from shaking hands and kisses during meetings. Use masks in transport
and crowded areas.
3. If you (or others) have any suspicious symptoms, do your best to avoid the
spread of the infection.
14 Conclusions
163
the accumulated number of cases and its differentiation can provide fairly accurate
and useful information about the course of the epidemic, identify important changes
in its dynamics and provide timely recommendations for quarantine measures or
control of social distancing.
To simulate different pandemic waves (periods with more or less constant values
of its dynamics parameters), a new general SIR model and its exact solution have
been proposed. Two procedures of its parameters identification were developed and
successfully applied to calculate the characteristics of several pandemic waves in
Ukraine and the world.
Due to the incomplete number of detected cases and permanent changes in
pandemic dynamics, SIR simulations must be updated using new data sets in order
to have good accuracy of predictions. The number of observations has to be large
enough, since all the conclusions are based on corresponding data sets. To avoid
complicated calculations and to obtain some predictions immediately after the
beginning of a new wave, simple estimations for the final size of a pandemic wave
and its duration were proposed and applied for USA, Germany, the UK, the
Republic of Korea, Italy, Austria, Spain, France, the Republic of Moldova, Sweden,
Ukraine, the city of Kyiv and the whole world.
The pandemic duration projections are unfortunately not optimistic. None of the
countries would overcome the current wave of the epidemic in 2020. In Germany
and Italy, it can last until the autumn of 2021, in the United States until the end of
2022. The final size of the recent pandemic wave can exceed 100 millions victims
in the world. All the calculations given in this book gave only underestimated
values in relation to the number of cases. We hope that effective quarantine measures and successful vaccination will be able to reverse this trend.
Very long duration of the pandemic requires correction of our behavior, we
cannot live as before it occurred. Decreased feelings of insecurity and
non-compliance with social distancing may further increase the pandemic duration
and the number of the coronavirus victims. Total closure of settlements or regions
can be recommended only in the event of a sharp increase in the number of cases.
There are many things that can be done without loss to the economy and our daily
lives:
1. Minimize the number of contacts and trips, do not visit crowded places. Work
and study remotely where possible.
2. Refrain from shaking hands and kisses during meetings. Use masks in transport
and crowded areas.
3. If you (or others) have any suspicious symptoms, do your best to avoid the
spread of the infection.
14 Conclusions
163