Chapter 14
Conclusions
The accuracy of any mathematical model is limited. Unfortunately, the correct
mathematical simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic is especially difficult for at least
two reasons. First, data on the number of cases were clearly incomplete immediately
after outbreaks; there were quite long hidden periods before the first case in a country
or region was confirmed. Large discrepancies between the registered and actual
number of cases occurred even for the later periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
second reason for the limited accuracy of mathematical modelling is the constant
changes in the conditions of the pandemic (quarantine measures, social behavior,
virulence of the pathogen, etc.). Therefore, the prediction made using statistics for a
certain period is no longer suitable for other periods of time.
The accuracy of mathematical simulation could be improved if we could use the
numbers of cases corresponding to the moments of time when persons got sick.
Unfortunately, the official WHO data sets deal with the days when the corresponding numbers of cases were laboratory confirmed. The delay can be different in
different countries and rather long. Nevertheless, the results of our research have
shown that mathematical models can adequately describe and predict the dynamics
of both the initial stages of the pandemic and its subsequent waves.
Exponential growth of the number of cases typical for every epidemic was
revealed also in COVID-19 dynamics for some countries and regions in March–
April 2020. Corresponding duplication rates and basic reproduction numbers were
calculated. Fortunately, after late March the dynamics in many countries and in the
world showed signs of stabilization (exponential growth stopped). After the end of
the summer of 2020 new powerful waves began (especially in European countries
and the United States).
In the book, some methods of comparison of the epidemic dynamics in different
countries were proposed. This allowed us to use information about regions where
the epidemic started earlier to predict its dynamics immediately after the outbreaks
in other countries. In particular, it was calculated that the fist epidemic wave in
Austria would stop with the number of cases similar to the corresponding figure in
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_14
161
Conclusions
The accuracy of any mathematical model is limited. Unfortunately, the correct
mathematical simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic is especially difficult for at least
two reasons. First, data on the number of cases were clearly incomplete immediately
after outbreaks; there were quite long hidden periods before the first case in a country
or region was confirmed. Large discrepancies between the registered and actual
number of cases occurred even for the later periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. The
second reason for the limited accuracy of mathematical modelling is the constant
changes in the conditions of the pandemic (quarantine measures, social behavior,
virulence of the pathogen, etc.). Therefore, the prediction made using statistics for a
certain period is no longer suitable for other periods of time.
The accuracy of mathematical simulation could be improved if we could use the
numbers of cases corresponding to the moments of time when persons got sick.
Unfortunately, the official WHO data sets deal with the days when the corresponding numbers of cases were laboratory confirmed. The delay can be different in
different countries and rather long. Nevertheless, the results of our research have
shown that mathematical models can adequately describe and predict the dynamics
of both the initial stages of the pandemic and its subsequent waves.
Exponential growth of the number of cases typical for every epidemic was
revealed also in COVID-19 dynamics for some countries and regions in March–
April 2020. Corresponding duplication rates and basic reproduction numbers were
calculated. Fortunately, after late March the dynamics in many countries and in the
world showed signs of stabilization (exponential growth stopped). After the end of
the summer of 2020 new powerful waves began (especially in European countries
and the United States).
In the book, some methods of comparison of the epidemic dynamics in different
countries were proposed. This allowed us to use information about regions where
the epidemic started earlier to predict its dynamics immediately after the outbreaks
in other countries. In particular, it was calculated that the fist epidemic wave in
Austria would stop with the number of cases similar to the corresponding figure in
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_14
161