the world and corresponding moments of time t j (in days starting with January 20,
2020) are shown in Table 8.1. Figures 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9, 8.10,
8.11, 8.12 and 8.13 present the results of calculations.
Figure 8.1 illustrates that the global pandemic dynamics was more or less similar
to SIR one in the fist half of April. The jumps of the second derivative (“stars”) are
already visible in the second half of April, and the most intense maximums of this
characteristic correspond to May 12 and 28; June 13; July 5, 14 and 29; the
beginning of October 2020. The first derivative (“triangles” in Fig. 8.1) increased
almost monotonously. Some visible minimum of dV/dt was achieved only in July
(the same picture we can see also in Fig. 7.6), but the corresponding values are very
high and not much lower than the maximum level in late July. Therefore, two
predictions for the first wave of global pandemic dynamics presented in Table 6.25
cannot yield satisfactory accuracy as evidenced by high levels of relative error
e > 80%. The time moments corresponding the maximum values of second
derivatives (8.3) or (8.5) can be treated as the starting points of the second, third and
so on waves of the pandemic. We will try to simulate these waves in the next
sections.
Table 8.1 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ukraine and the world,
[1, 93]
Day in
July
and
August
2020
Time
in
days t j
Number of
cases
in Ukraine V j
Global
number of
cases V j
Day in
August,
September
and October
2020
Time
in
days t j
Number of
cases in
Ukraine w j
Global
number of
cases w j
30
192
69,884
17,106,007 22
215
104,958
23,057,288
31
193
71,056
17,396,943 29
222
119,074
24,854,140
1
194
72,168
17,660,523
5
229
135,894
26,763,217
2
195
73,158
17,918,582 12
236
154,335
28,637,952
3
196
74,219
18,142,718 19
243
175,678
30,675,675
4
197
75,490
18,354,342 26
250
198,634
32,730,945
5
198
76,808
18,614,177
3
257
226,462
34,804,348
6
199
78,261
18,902,735 10
264
261,035
37,109,851
7
200
79,750
19,187,943
8
201
80,949
19,462,112
9
202
81,957
19,718,030
10
203
83,115
19,936,210
11
204
84,548
20,162,474
12
205
86,140
20,439,814
13
206
87,872
20,730,456
14
207
89,719
21,026,758
15
208
91,356
21,294,845
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
111
2020) are shown in Table 8.1. Figures 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9, 8.10,
8.11, 8.12 and 8.13 present the results of calculations.
Figure 8.1 illustrates that the global pandemic dynamics was more or less similar
to SIR one in the fist half of April. The jumps of the second derivative (“stars”) are
already visible in the second half of April, and the most intense maximums of this
characteristic correspond to May 12 and 28; June 13; July 5, 14 and 29; the
beginning of October 2020. The first derivative (“triangles” in Fig. 8.1) increased
almost monotonously. Some visible minimum of dV/dt was achieved only in July
(the same picture we can see also in Fig. 7.6), but the corresponding values are very
high and not much lower than the maximum level in late July. Therefore, two
predictions for the first wave of global pandemic dynamics presented in Table 6.25
cannot yield satisfactory accuracy as evidenced by high levels of relative error
e > 80%. The time moments corresponding the maximum values of second
derivatives (8.3) or (8.5) can be treated as the starting points of the second, third and
so on waves of the pandemic. We will try to simulate these waves in the next
sections.
Table 8.1 Official cumulative numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ukraine and the world,
[1, 93]
Day in
July
and
August
2020
Time
in
days t j
Number of
cases
in Ukraine V j
Global
number of
cases V j
Day in
August,
September
and October
2020
Time
in
days t j
Number of
cases in
Ukraine w j
Global
number of
cases w j
30
192
69,884
17,106,007 22
215
104,958
23,057,288
31
193
71,056
17,396,943 29
222
119,074
24,854,140
1
194
72,168
17,660,523
5
229
135,894
26,763,217
2
195
73,158
17,918,582 12
236
154,335
28,637,952
3
196
74,219
18,142,718 19
243
175,678
30,675,675
4
197
75,490
18,354,342 26
250
198,634
32,730,945
5
198
76,808
18,614,177
3
257
226,462
34,804,348
6
199
78,261
18,902,735 10
264
261,035
37,109,851
7
200
79,750
19,187,943
8
201
80,949
19,462,112
9
202
81,957
19,718,030
10
203
83,115
19,936,210
11
204
84,548
20,162,474
12
205
86,140
20,439,814
13
206
87,872
20,730,456
14
207
89,719
21,026,758
15
208
91,356
21,294,845
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
111