Error Estimation for Forecasting of Orographic …
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Fig. 4 Ten step ahead for prediction for Majitar and Ghum (1980–2018)
Table 1 Table of parameters of the predicted rainfall of the two hill stations (R 2 value, F-statistics,
and P-value)
Stations
R2
F-statics
P-value
Simulated
Recorded
Simulated
Recorded
Majitar
0.8799
0.898
0.898
0.8767
0.5453
Ghum
0.8666
0.891
0.891
0.8925
0.5503
Table 2 Parameters of the two hill stations (Majitar and Ghum) are SI (Scatter index, mean absolute
error, mean square error, and root mean square error)
Stations
SI
MAE
na
nc
MSE
RMSE
Majitar
0.074
0.091
6
8
13.96
20.708
Ghum
0.763
0.1
6
4
9.408
15.043
value indicating better prediction. In future, rainfall data of more stations with higher
altitude is necessary to validate the improved orographic rain prediction model.