5 United Kingdom
Pathways towards a low- carbon
electricity system – nuclear expansion
versus nuclear phase out
Rocío Alvarez- Tinoco, Michele Stua, and
Gordon MacKerron
Introduction
Since the early 2000s, fossil fuel has registered a sharp decrease in its role in
overall electricity generation in the UK, falling from more than 250 TWh (terawatt hours) supplied in 2005 to less than 150 TWh in 2015. With nuclear power
holding its earlier share, renewables were the main source of substitution for
fossil- based generation. Identifying the drivers for this shift in UK electricity
supply represents the first step to understand the strategies, policies, and actions
characterising the UK electricity generation system.
While prices and energy security concerns have maintained a strong influence on the UK electricity system, one more recent driver has been significant
in determining major changes in the UK electric generation mix. The commitment in the UK Climate Change Act 2008 (HM Government, 2008) to
achieve 80% emission reductions by 2050 has significantly raised attention to
the potential for low- carbon electricity. An ageing electricity infrastructure,
requiring significant renewal in the next decades, represents an opportunity to
accelerate the UK’s low- carbon electricity transition. Consequently, UK climate
strategies, policies, and actions are likely to become the key drivers for the
evolutionary dynamics of the UK electricity mix over the next decades.
Two opposing decarbonisation pathways are particularly relevant for the UK
electricity system. One relies on an increase in new nuclear power and the other
involves phasing out nuclear with increased reliance on renewable energy.
Comparison of the electricity mix over the past 35 years with the changes in
the UK electricity generation mix between 2015 and 2016 (Figures 5.1 and 5.2)
offers insights into the UK’s decarbonisation process as a driver in transforming
domestic electricity generation.
Apart from the significant shift from traditional fossil fuels to renewable
resources, this comparison illustrates the dynamics within the British fossil- fuel
sector. The dramatic decrease in the share of coal by more than 50% in just one
year was not compensated by a rise in the low- carbon share, but by natural gas.
While gas is a fossil fuel, it is often considered a ‘transition’ resource in a long- term
Pathways towards a low- carbon
electricity system – nuclear expansion
versus nuclear phase out
Rocío Alvarez- Tinoco, Michele Stua, and
Gordon MacKerron
Introduction
Since the early 2000s, fossil fuel has registered a sharp decrease in its role in
overall electricity generation in the UK, falling from more than 250 TWh (terawatt hours) supplied in 2005 to less than 150 TWh in 2015. With nuclear power
holding its earlier share, renewables were the main source of substitution for
fossil- based generation. Identifying the drivers for this shift in UK electricity
supply represents the first step to understand the strategies, policies, and actions
characterising the UK electricity generation system.
While prices and energy security concerns have maintained a strong influence on the UK electricity system, one more recent driver has been significant
in determining major changes in the UK electric generation mix. The commitment in the UK Climate Change Act 2008 (HM Government, 2008) to
achieve 80% emission reductions by 2050 has significantly raised attention to
the potential for low- carbon electricity. An ageing electricity infrastructure,
requiring significant renewal in the next decades, represents an opportunity to
accelerate the UK’s low- carbon electricity transition. Consequently, UK climate
strategies, policies, and actions are likely to become the key drivers for the
evolutionary dynamics of the UK electricity mix over the next decades.
Two opposing decarbonisation pathways are particularly relevant for the UK
electricity system. One relies on an increase in new nuclear power and the other
involves phasing out nuclear with increased reliance on renewable energy.
Comparison of the electricity mix over the past 35 years with the changes in
the UK electricity generation mix between 2015 and 2016 (Figures 5.1 and 5.2)
offers insights into the UK’s decarbonisation process as a driver in transforming
domestic electricity generation.
Apart from the significant shift from traditional fossil fuels to renewable
resources, this comparison illustrates the dynamics within the British fossil- fuel
sector. The dramatic decrease in the share of coal by more than 50% in just one
year was not compensated by a rise in the low- carbon share, but by natural gas.
While gas is a fossil fuel, it is often considered a ‘transition’ resource in a long- term