50 Luis D. Virla et al.
reducing emissions from the oil sands, as conveyed by the Energy Futures Lab.
These different futures represent pathways that are not mutually exclusive and
are partially complementary. They reflect alternatives developed under different
contexts but aiming for a similar goal: to create a sustainable future for Alberta.
These three futures will be presented by considering the views and expectations
of stakeholders and the potential implementation and consequential risks of
following a specific pathway.
‘Cap the hat’: carbon emissions cap for the oil sands and methane
reduction
This future considers the government of Alberta’s current effort to decrease
emissions in the oil sands sector. As stated by Alberta’s premier, leader of the
New Democratic Party (NDP) responsible for development of the new policy
for climate change abatement, Alberta is looking to develop a plan capable of
decreasing the environmental impact of the oil sands sector while securing the
economic benefits of that sector:
Responding to climate change is about doing what’s right for future
generations of Albertans – protecting our jobs, health and the environment.
It will help us access new markets for our energy products, and diversify our
economy with renewable energy and energy efficiency technology. Alberta
is showing leadership on one of the world’s biggest problems, and doing
our part.
(Rachel Notley, Premier of Alberta, in Alberta Ministry of Environemnt
and Parks, 2015)
As part of its Climate Leadership Plan, Alberta proposes an output- based
allocation system for carbon emissions based on three main actions: (i) a 100 Mt
emissions cap for the oil sands sector; (ii) establishing a credit trading system
between emitters; and (iii) setting a C$30/ton carbon tax for facilities that exceed
100,000 CO 2 tons/year (Leach et al., 2015). The carbon tax is expected to
increase to C$50/ton by 2022 in order to meet federal targets (Government of
Canada, 2016). With this plan, the government expects to reduce emissions by
encouraging companies to implement new low- emission technologies. The
industry is envisioned to continue growing, as the cost of production has decreased
to around C$25/barrel due to technological efficiencies and will continue to
decline in costs over forthcoming years (Erickson, 2018). At the current carbon
tax rate, the cost of oil sands production has increased by C$1 (Ignjatovic, 2016).
The carbon tax is expected to encourage industry to reduce emissions from
bitumen extraction and production processes. Additionally, the carbon tax is
expected to promote energy efficiency and the application of renewable energy in
the extraction and production process, along with reducing methane flaring.
Aside from carbon emissions, targets have been set to decrease methane
emissions by 45% by 2025. Methane cuts are expected to be achieved through
reducing emissions from the oil sands, as conveyed by the Energy Futures Lab.
These different futures represent pathways that are not mutually exclusive and
are partially complementary. They reflect alternatives developed under different
contexts but aiming for a similar goal: to create a sustainable future for Alberta.
These three futures will be presented by considering the views and expectations
of stakeholders and the potential implementation and consequential risks of
following a specific pathway.
‘Cap the hat’: carbon emissions cap for the oil sands and methane
reduction
This future considers the government of Alberta’s current effort to decrease
emissions in the oil sands sector. As stated by Alberta’s premier, leader of the
New Democratic Party (NDP) responsible for development of the new policy
for climate change abatement, Alberta is looking to develop a plan capable of
decreasing the environmental impact of the oil sands sector while securing the
economic benefits of that sector:
Responding to climate change is about doing what’s right for future
generations of Albertans – protecting our jobs, health and the environment.
It will help us access new markets for our energy products, and diversify our
economy with renewable energy and energy efficiency technology. Alberta
is showing leadership on one of the world’s biggest problems, and doing
our part.
(Rachel Notley, Premier of Alberta, in Alberta Ministry of Environemnt
and Parks, 2015)
As part of its Climate Leadership Plan, Alberta proposes an output- based
allocation system for carbon emissions based on three main actions: (i) a 100 Mt
emissions cap for the oil sands sector; (ii) establishing a credit trading system
between emitters; and (iii) setting a C$30/ton carbon tax for facilities that exceed
100,000 CO 2 tons/year (Leach et al., 2015). The carbon tax is expected to
increase to C$50/ton by 2022 in order to meet federal targets (Government of
Canada, 2016). With this plan, the government expects to reduce emissions by
encouraging companies to implement new low- emission technologies. The
industry is envisioned to continue growing, as the cost of production has decreased
to around C$25/barrel due to technological efficiencies and will continue to
decline in costs over forthcoming years (Erickson, 2018). At the current carbon
tax rate, the cost of oil sands production has increased by C$1 (Ignjatovic, 2016).
The carbon tax is expected to encourage industry to reduce emissions from
bitumen extraction and production processes. Additionally, the carbon tax is
expected to promote energy efficiency and the application of renewable energy in
the extraction and production process, along with reducing methane flaring.
Aside from carbon emissions, targets have been set to decrease methane
emissions by 45% by 2025. Methane cuts are expected to be achieved through