Austria 41
Besides stakeholder perceptions of the most relevant implementation and
consequential risks, appraising and modelling impacts of the transition pathways
and correlated risks can only be done in the light of uncertainties. Within the
modelling process of transition pathways, several uncertainty layers were identified (Bachner et al., 2018b). There are several technological options for transition and corresponding costs statements that are uncertain and lead to different
effects along transitions. The possible developments of population and economic growth lead to socio- economic uncertainty and are based on the shared
socio- economic pathways (SSPs) (O’Neill et al., 2014). The stringency and geographic scope of climate policy is uncertain and highly influences other factors
to be considered in modelling transition pathways. The uncertain macroeconomic state of a country along the transition pathway influences the degree
of capacity utilisation.
Conclusions
The co- developed narrative presented in this chapter highlights the risks associated with disruptive technological changes that are implied by transition to lowcarbon energy production for Austria’s iron and steel sector. It illustrates the
strong sectoral interrelationships and resulting risks, making the transition in
the iron and steel sector dependent on the transition in the energy sector as
well as other sectors. The technology choice in one sector will influence the
transition pathway of the other sectors and vice versa; for example, whether
mobility will be electrified or supplied by hydrogen will be crucial for the iron
and steel sector.
Stakeholders from all kinds of affiliation stress that missing long- term policy
frameworks, and the lack of cross- sectoral alignment of technology choices and
supply chains, can hinder transition.
Technological innovation in Austria is currently strongly driven by the
industry itself with public financial support (mainly by the EU), while the sociopolitical framework on the national level is not to date pushing for a substantial
transition. This implies that industry would need to take risks with possible negative consequences but also with the possibility of becoming technological
pioneers.
Another main implementation risk stressed by stakeholders is the trade- off
between climate mitigation and social justice. If there is no clear policy framework that considers and mitigates threats posed to social justice by the transition, there may be fear and opposition towards changes. In addition, the
question of who pays for the transition is fundamental here. The companies
involved need planning security for investment and a clear regulatory framework. This is crucial for private investment in decentralised solutions. If it is not
clear to ‘prosumers’ to what extent the investment is part of a higher- level
energy strategy, they will restrain their investments. In our understanding, such
long- term subsidy guarantees are part of comprehensive energy strategies. If
information regarding such instruments is lacking, so will be planning security
Besides stakeholder perceptions of the most relevant implementation and
consequential risks, appraising and modelling impacts of the transition pathways
and correlated risks can only be done in the light of uncertainties. Within the
modelling process of transition pathways, several uncertainty layers were identified (Bachner et al., 2018b). There are several technological options for transition and corresponding costs statements that are uncertain and lead to different
effects along transitions. The possible developments of population and economic growth lead to socio- economic uncertainty and are based on the shared
socio- economic pathways (SSPs) (O’Neill et al., 2014). The stringency and geographic scope of climate policy is uncertain and highly influences other factors
to be considered in modelling transition pathways. The uncertain macroeconomic state of a country along the transition pathway influences the degree
of capacity utilisation.
Conclusions
The co- developed narrative presented in this chapter highlights the risks associated with disruptive technological changes that are implied by transition to lowcarbon energy production for Austria’s iron and steel sector. It illustrates the
strong sectoral interrelationships and resulting risks, making the transition in
the iron and steel sector dependent on the transition in the energy sector as
well as other sectors. The technology choice in one sector will influence the
transition pathway of the other sectors and vice versa; for example, whether
mobility will be electrified or supplied by hydrogen will be crucial for the iron
and steel sector.
Stakeholders from all kinds of affiliation stress that missing long- term policy
frameworks, and the lack of cross- sectoral alignment of technology choices and
supply chains, can hinder transition.
Technological innovation in Austria is currently strongly driven by the
industry itself with public financial support (mainly by the EU), while the sociopolitical framework on the national level is not to date pushing for a substantial
transition. This implies that industry would need to take risks with possible negative consequences but also with the possibility of becoming technological
pioneers.
Another main implementation risk stressed by stakeholders is the trade- off
between climate mitigation and social justice. If there is no clear policy framework that considers and mitigates threats posed to social justice by the transition, there may be fear and opposition towards changes. In addition, the
question of who pays for the transition is fundamental here. The companies
involved need planning security for investment and a clear regulatory framework. This is crucial for private investment in decentralised solutions. If it is not
clear to ‘prosumers’ to what extent the investment is part of a higher- level
energy strategy, they will restrain their investments. In our understanding, such
long- term subsidy guarantees are part of comprehensive energy strategies. If
information regarding such instruments is lacking, so will be planning security