32 Brigitte Wolkinger et al.
model revealed impacts on GDP and employment (Mayer, Bachner, and Steininger, 2019).
A promising transition pathway not only needs industry (e.g. steel production) to be electrified, but also a broader electrification of a range of other economic activities including, for example, e- mobility. The transition towards an
electrified economy is thus simultaneously a precondition for the transition of
the steel sector. There is consensus among stakeholders in Austria that energy
supply in 2050 will be 100% renewable (PV, wind, H 2 produced from renewables) and that new opportunities from digitalisation will lead to a highly
energy- efficient economy. Part of the transition pathway in order to reach this
target are assumptions on the sectoral electricity generation portfolio under specific socio- economic developments. The socio- economic development included
in modelling is based on the shared socio- economic pathway framework (SSP2)
(O’Neill et al., 2014). For the 100% renewable target, additional investments
for storage (power to gas and batteries) are becoming necessary from 2036
onwards. This has been modelled by a macroeconomic model which in turn is
based on a proposed pathway by Pleßmann and Blechinger (2017) with refinements by stakeholders (especially for the wind capacity).
The broader vision
The draft transition pathway for the iron and steel sector was also seen as a
broader pathway to move to a hydrogen economy by 2050. It considers bridging
solutions, such as natural gas, that can cause lock- in effects, as well as upstream
value chain requirements (e.g. renewables- based hydrogen generation).
As the need for hydrogen in sectors other than steel is still unclear, possible
supply chains are not well understood, posing an important risk. Stakeholders
highlighted that inter- sectoral relationships should, however, be actively
explored as part of a circular economy. Demand for hydrogen produced via
renewables for process emission- free steel production might compete with
hydrogen needs in other sectors of the economy (e.g. the chemical industry,
mobility). Relevant caveats apply with regards to the simultaneous transition in
the electricity supply subsystem towards renewables in order to prevent a shift
from process emissions in the iron and steel sector towards combustion- based
emissions in power generation.
Austrian stakeholders suggested rethinking the concept of ‘decarbonisation’,
rather aiming for ‘carbon management’, as carbon itself might still play a crucial
role in a future economy. Carbon management is distinct from a fully decarbonised future as the focus is on the management of the balance of GHG emission
sources and sinks. It allows for CO 2 reduction by using intelligent grids and electricity from renewables in combination with chemical storage to avoid the fluctuations of renewables. Carbon- intensive production and consumption is in
principle permitted; however: (i) the atmospheric net balance should not be
positive, and (ii) this intent can be facilitated by achieving an as- far-as- possible
decarbonised economic system. Besides sequestering, remaining carbon emissions
model revealed impacts on GDP and employment (Mayer, Bachner, and Steininger, 2019).
A promising transition pathway not only needs industry (e.g. steel production) to be electrified, but also a broader electrification of a range of other economic activities including, for example, e- mobility. The transition towards an
electrified economy is thus simultaneously a precondition for the transition of
the steel sector. There is consensus among stakeholders in Austria that energy
supply in 2050 will be 100% renewable (PV, wind, H 2 produced from renewables) and that new opportunities from digitalisation will lead to a highly
energy- efficient economy. Part of the transition pathway in order to reach this
target are assumptions on the sectoral electricity generation portfolio under specific socio- economic developments. The socio- economic development included
in modelling is based on the shared socio- economic pathway framework (SSP2)
(O’Neill et al., 2014). For the 100% renewable target, additional investments
for storage (power to gas and batteries) are becoming necessary from 2036
onwards. This has been modelled by a macroeconomic model which in turn is
based on a proposed pathway by Pleßmann and Blechinger (2017) with refinements by stakeholders (especially for the wind capacity).
The broader vision
The draft transition pathway for the iron and steel sector was also seen as a
broader pathway to move to a hydrogen economy by 2050. It considers bridging
solutions, such as natural gas, that can cause lock- in effects, as well as upstream
value chain requirements (e.g. renewables- based hydrogen generation).
As the need for hydrogen in sectors other than steel is still unclear, possible
supply chains are not well understood, posing an important risk. Stakeholders
highlighted that inter- sectoral relationships should, however, be actively
explored as part of a circular economy. Demand for hydrogen produced via
renewables for process emission- free steel production might compete with
hydrogen needs in other sectors of the economy (e.g. the chemical industry,
mobility). Relevant caveats apply with regards to the simultaneous transition in
the electricity supply subsystem towards renewables in order to prevent a shift
from process emissions in the iron and steel sector towards combustion- based
emissions in power generation.
Austrian stakeholders suggested rethinking the concept of ‘decarbonisation’,
rather aiming for ‘carbon management’, as carbon itself might still play a crucial
role in a future economy. Carbon management is distinct from a fully decarbonised future as the focus is on the management of the balance of GHG emission
sources and sinks. It allows for CO 2 reduction by using intelligent grids and electricity from renewables in combination with chemical storage to avoid the fluctuations of renewables. Carbon- intensive production and consumption is in
principle permitted; however: (i) the atmospheric net balance should not be
positive, and (ii) this intent can be facilitated by achieving an as- far-as- possible
decarbonised economic system. Besides sequestering, remaining carbon emissions