18 Susanne Hanger-Kopp et al.
behaviour. As said previously, during stakeholder elicitation it is important to
identify concerns and areas of disagreement across stakeholder groups in order
to arrive at a broad qualitative assessment of transition pathways. Expert elicitation could then be useful as a potential follow- up on individual risks, where this
is possible. An important aspect to keep in mind in this respect is that the consultations were not aimed at generating objective information from stakeholders, as there is no such thing as an objective point of view, particularly with
respect to risks and uncertainties. The main goal, instead, was to make these
points of view explicit so that they can be considered and valued in the development of the transition pathways.
The complementarity of the modelling and stakeholder approaches allowed
for a broad consideration and detailed understanding of risks, taking into
account the different perspectives of individuals and/or stakeholder groups.
While the details of the modelling aspects of these pathways and the particular
interactions with stakeholders are published elsewhere (Dalla Longa and van
der Zwaan, 2017; e.g. Lieu et al., forthcoming; van der Zwaan et al., 2018). The
narratives in this book provide a non- technical and in- depth approach to
the respective low- carbon pathways. These are based on the findings from the
extensive stakeholder engagement processes used in the respective case studies.
Many of these use one or more specific stakeholder- driven methods for identifying risks, uncertainties, opportunities, and benefits in the specific national contexts. These include system mapping (SM), fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM),
and multiple- criteria group decision making (MCGDM).
SM (Albu and Griffith, 2006) is a qualitative mapping method recently
applied to the climate change and policy domain (Nikas et al., 2017). It constitutes a novel approach to defining system boundaries, capturing interactions
among institutions and technological value chains and describing enabling
environments for these value chains, such as cultural aspects, existing policies
and regulation, and habits. Based on the mapping, system inefficiencies or other
obstacles can be identified that potentially block the successful implementation
of the transition pathway: implementation risks. Moreover, the mapping can
reveal potential opportunities within a system to benefit from when pursuing
the transition. The identified risks and opportunities may directly or indirectly
facilitate or hinder a transition pathway, or a policy aiming to promote that
pathway. Once elicited from policymakers and other relevant actors, this knowledge is translated into a diagrammatic form. In this book, the SM framework is
based on the components of a TIS: enablers and barriers affecting the development of a system include policy instruments, contextual factors, institutions,
and infrastructure. The method is widely used in the following chapters to help
inform integrated assessment modelling and other policy support activities.
With a more quantitative approach, FCM is a semi- or quasi- quantitative
modelling technique that essentially comprises a visual (mapping) component
and a mathematical (simulation) component. It aims to identify how a particular change to the system is perceived to affect it. This change can be a
socio- economic driver or a policy instrument, the impacts of which are useful
behaviour. As said previously, during stakeholder elicitation it is important to
identify concerns and areas of disagreement across stakeholder groups in order
to arrive at a broad qualitative assessment of transition pathways. Expert elicitation could then be useful as a potential follow- up on individual risks, where this
is possible. An important aspect to keep in mind in this respect is that the consultations were not aimed at generating objective information from stakeholders, as there is no such thing as an objective point of view, particularly with
respect to risks and uncertainties. The main goal, instead, was to make these
points of view explicit so that they can be considered and valued in the development of the transition pathways.
The complementarity of the modelling and stakeholder approaches allowed
for a broad consideration and detailed understanding of risks, taking into
account the different perspectives of individuals and/or stakeholder groups.
While the details of the modelling aspects of these pathways and the particular
interactions with stakeholders are published elsewhere (Dalla Longa and van
der Zwaan, 2017; e.g. Lieu et al., forthcoming; van der Zwaan et al., 2018). The
narratives in this book provide a non- technical and in- depth approach to
the respective low- carbon pathways. These are based on the findings from the
extensive stakeholder engagement processes used in the respective case studies.
Many of these use one or more specific stakeholder- driven methods for identifying risks, uncertainties, opportunities, and benefits in the specific national contexts. These include system mapping (SM), fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM),
and multiple- criteria group decision making (MCGDM).
SM (Albu and Griffith, 2006) is a qualitative mapping method recently
applied to the climate change and policy domain (Nikas et al., 2017). It constitutes a novel approach to defining system boundaries, capturing interactions
among institutions and technological value chains and describing enabling
environments for these value chains, such as cultural aspects, existing policies
and regulation, and habits. Based on the mapping, system inefficiencies or other
obstacles can be identified that potentially block the successful implementation
of the transition pathway: implementation risks. Moreover, the mapping can
reveal potential opportunities within a system to benefit from when pursuing
the transition. The identified risks and opportunities may directly or indirectly
facilitate or hinder a transition pathway, or a policy aiming to promote that
pathway. Once elicited from policymakers and other relevant actors, this knowledge is translated into a diagrammatic form. In this book, the SM framework is
based on the components of a TIS: enablers and barriers affecting the development of a system include policy instruments, contextual factors, institutions,
and infrastructure. The method is widely used in the following chapters to help
inform integrated assessment modelling and other policy support activities.
With a more quantitative approach, FCM is a semi- or quasi- quantitative
modelling technique that essentially comprises a visual (mapping) component
and a mathematical (simulation) component. It aims to identify how a particular change to the system is perceived to affect it. This change can be a
socio- economic driver or a policy instrument, the impacts of which are useful