Afterword
Key insights on overarching risks across
transition pathways
There is no ‘one size fits all’ low- carbon energy transition for all parts of the world.
While this point is, perhaps, appreciated on a global scale, at a local level there are
many lessons to learn. Economic, social, political, and environmental factors can
vary enormously between different areas of a country, presenting a varied pattern of
risks, opportunities, and challenges to the roll out of a low- carbon technology, associated policies, and behavioural changes. The narratives in this book reflect this
variability in the diverse set of risks identified in each country. This said, we can
broadly identify risks that are common across many, or all, of our case studies.
Investments in low- carbon technological innovations are often viewed as a
high risk, which increases the cost of borrowing capital. Revenue guarantees, for
example, can provide reassurance; however, national recognition and will to
push forward with low- carbon technologies is not always backed up with the
necessary funding to support it.
Small- scale technologies can encounter cost barriers at the household level,
where the upfront cost of these technologies is born. Programmes to overcome
these cost barriers are often implemented in only specific sub- national areas
over a limited timeframe, which restricts the scaling up of a technology. Coherent, long- term policies are necessary to deploy these small- scale technologies at
scale. At the same time this highlights the importance of action taken at lower
administrative levels.
Many industrial- scale energy industries have large sunk costs in infrastructure
and skills development. A low- carbon pathway that suggests abandoning or
scaling back these industries can encounter significant resistance due to the
destruction of financial and human capital. As a consequence, a feasible way
forward can be through improvement of existing technologies which are unattractive from an environmental (including climate) perspective but nevertheless realistic from a social perspective.
Stakeholders expect low- carbon technologies to lead to positive environmental impacts, mainly through climate change mitigation or improved air
quality. However, technologies can give rise to negative impacts, particularly
when scaled up. These impacts are often linked to land- use changes but also
include knock- on impacts in the production, installation, operation, and dismantling of a technology.
Key insights on overarching risks across
transition pathways
There is no ‘one size fits all’ low- carbon energy transition for all parts of the world.
While this point is, perhaps, appreciated on a global scale, at a local level there are
many lessons to learn. Economic, social, political, and environmental factors can
vary enormously between different areas of a country, presenting a varied pattern of
risks, opportunities, and challenges to the roll out of a low- carbon technology, associated policies, and behavioural changes. The narratives in this book reflect this
variability in the diverse set of risks identified in each country. This said, we can
broadly identify risks that are common across many, or all, of our case studies.
Investments in low- carbon technological innovations are often viewed as a
high risk, which increases the cost of borrowing capital. Revenue guarantees, for
example, can provide reassurance; however, national recognition and will to
push forward with low- carbon technologies is not always backed up with the
necessary funding to support it.
Small- scale technologies can encounter cost barriers at the household level,
where the upfront cost of these technologies is born. Programmes to overcome
these cost barriers are often implemented in only specific sub- national areas
over a limited timeframe, which restricts the scaling up of a technology. Coherent, long- term policies are necessary to deploy these small- scale technologies at
scale. At the same time this highlights the importance of action taken at lower
administrative levels.
Many industrial- scale energy industries have large sunk costs in infrastructure
and skills development. A low- carbon pathway that suggests abandoning or
scaling back these industries can encounter significant resistance due to the
destruction of financial and human capital. As a consequence, a feasible way
forward can be through improvement of existing technologies which are unattractive from an environmental (including climate) perspective but nevertheless realistic from a social perspective.
Stakeholders expect low- carbon technologies to lead to positive environmental impacts, mainly through climate change mitigation or improved air
quality. However, technologies can give rise to negative impacts, particularly
when scaled up. These impacts are often linked to land- use changes but also
include knock- on impacts in the production, installation, operation, and dismantling of a technology.