14 Transition pathways, risks, and
uncertainties
Jenny Lieu, Susanne Hanger- Kopp,
Wytze van der Gaast, Richard Taylor, and
Ed Dearnley
1
Introduction
Transition pathways to reduce carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases
(GHGs) in energy- related sectors are often portrayed as inherently positive
changes to support climate mitigation efforts. The most significant concerns
around them are generally whether we successfully implement the necessary
technology, policies, and behavioural changes needed to follow the pathway.
However, transitions may also involve potentially negative impacts on the
economy, society, and environment, for example in the form of hidden costs,
unemployment, or the loss of biodiversity. This implies two dimensions of risk,
as we discuss in Chapter 2 and employ across the case studies presented: The
first is the risks associated with designing or implementing the pathway, and the
second is the unintended yet potentially negative consequences resulting from
following a pathway.
We used narratives as an enriched form of insight to provide comprehensive
knowledge from a wider systematic research and engagement process carried out
over three years of the TRANSrisk research project. These narratives from
Europe, Asia, Africa, and North and South America discuss a diverse set of
pathways that may contribute to low- carbon transitions. In some cases the focus
is on the past and how lessons learned may influence future transition efforts
(e.g. Spain, Greece). In others, pathways were designed as high- level strategies
through a top- down approach but require additional bottom- up knowledge and
consideration to be successfully implemented (e.g. China, Switzerland). Finally,
in some cases pathways were created based on stakeholders’ perceptions and
preferences, or co- created with stakeholders reflecting desired futures for a
certain technological innovation or sector (e.g. Austria, Indonesia, Canada).
We synthesise our findings across narratives in three nested dimensions
present in all pathways: technological innovations implemented in an existing or
new market; policy mixes supporting these technologies; and society where
impacts are felt, perceptions created, and support or opposition is determined.
All three dimensions are interrelated, but as conceptual boundaries they provide
a starting point to explore risks identified as barriers to transitions and potential
negative consequences of a pathway.
uncertainties
Jenny Lieu, Susanne Hanger- Kopp,
Wytze van der Gaast, Richard Taylor, and
Ed Dearnley
1
Introduction
Transition pathways to reduce carbon emissions and other greenhouse gases
(GHGs) in energy- related sectors are often portrayed as inherently positive
changes to support climate mitigation efforts. The most significant concerns
around them are generally whether we successfully implement the necessary
technology, policies, and behavioural changes needed to follow the pathway.
However, transitions may also involve potentially negative impacts on the
economy, society, and environment, for example in the form of hidden costs,
unemployment, or the loss of biodiversity. This implies two dimensions of risk,
as we discuss in Chapter 2 and employ across the case studies presented: The
first is the risks associated with designing or implementing the pathway, and the
second is the unintended yet potentially negative consequences resulting from
following a pathway.
We used narratives as an enriched form of insight to provide comprehensive
knowledge from a wider systematic research and engagement process carried out
over three years of the TRANSrisk research project. These narratives from
Europe, Asia, Africa, and North and South America discuss a diverse set of
pathways that may contribute to low- carbon transitions. In some cases the focus
is on the past and how lessons learned may influence future transition efforts
(e.g. Spain, Greece). In others, pathways were designed as high- level strategies
through a top- down approach but require additional bottom- up knowledge and
consideration to be successfully implemented (e.g. China, Switzerland). Finally,
in some cases pathways were created based on stakeholders’ perceptions and
preferences, or co- created with stakeholders reflecting desired futures for a
certain technological innovation or sector (e.g. Austria, Indonesia, Canada).
We synthesise our findings across narratives in three nested dimensions
present in all pathways: technological innovations implemented in an existing or
new market; policy mixes supporting these technologies; and society where
impacts are felt, perceptions created, and support or opposition is determined.
All three dimensions are interrelated, but as conceptual boundaries they provide
a starting point to explore risks identified as barriers to transitions and potential
negative consequences of a pathway.