Introduction 5
20-20-20 targets, i.e. a 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a
20% share of EU energy from renewables, and a 20% improvement in energy
efficiency.
The 2030 climate and energy framework also includes three key targets: a 40%
cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a 27% share of EU energy
from renewables, and a 27% improvement in energy efficiency.
Finally, the 2050 low- carbon economy roadmap represents the EU’s long- term
vision towards a ‘virtually zero’ emissions society. The roadmap is solely focused
on cutting emissions, aiming at an aggregate reduction of 80% (from 1990 levels)
and an intermediate target of 60% by 2040. The 2050 low- carbon economy currently represents a mere ‘statement’ and most of its framework is still under
development.
In light of the Paris Agreement and the challenging actions it entails, the
European Commission (EC) is presently updating its long- term decarbonisation
strategies for 2050 and beyond, and is seeking public consultation in the revision
process. The new strategy will need to consider how the EU can meet the ambitious 1.5°C target, which has not yet been reflected in its current climate policies.
EU targets provide an important indicative framework, but the Emissions
Trading System (ETS), as a market instrument, and regulatory instruments, such
as the Renewable Energy Directive, more concretely structure the Union’s
pathway towards a low- carbon future. Whereas the ETS applies one instrument
across the EU, community regulations acknowledge the needs for tailored strategies in each member state.
The national, sub- national, and local pathways needed to achieve these international and national decarbonisation targets are much more complex than
international agreements let on. Indeed, any such high- level policies are not
meaningful if lower-level contexts are insufficiently understood. Top- down
approaches, in terms of both policy choices and policy analysis, insufficiently
reflect the realities on the ground. They should be complemented by bottom- up
approaches that consider the unique circumstances of a varied group of stakeholders – particularly in order to understand barriers to the implementation of
relevant policy choices, as well as their potential negative consequences and
positive side effects. Fully understanding such risks and respective opportunities
requires a diverse and flexible set of methods, and deep involvement of stakeholders. This is because a risk is not only context dependent but also largely
depends on its perception, i.e. the eye of the beholder. Risk categories drawn
from a single discipline therefore only constitute a limited subset of possible
risks. These are often risks for which data is available and can therefore be
quantified in terms of mathematical probabilities or variance. However, because
they neglect risks that cannot be grasped by computable data, they may not be
able to provide a complete picture for decision making or may insufficiently
explain decisions made.
This book attempts to illustrate the diverse set of risks and uncertainties –
both quantifiable and non- quantifiable – associated with low- carbon transition
20-20-20 targets, i.e. a 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a
20% share of EU energy from renewables, and a 20% improvement in energy
efficiency.
The 2030 climate and energy framework also includes three key targets: a 40%
cut in greenhouse gas emissions (from 1990 levels), a 27% share of EU energy
from renewables, and a 27% improvement in energy efficiency.
Finally, the 2050 low- carbon economy roadmap represents the EU’s long- term
vision towards a ‘virtually zero’ emissions society. The roadmap is solely focused
on cutting emissions, aiming at an aggregate reduction of 80% (from 1990 levels)
and an intermediate target of 60% by 2040. The 2050 low- carbon economy currently represents a mere ‘statement’ and most of its framework is still under
development.
In light of the Paris Agreement and the challenging actions it entails, the
European Commission (EC) is presently updating its long- term decarbonisation
strategies for 2050 and beyond, and is seeking public consultation in the revision
process. The new strategy will need to consider how the EU can meet the ambitious 1.5°C target, which has not yet been reflected in its current climate policies.
EU targets provide an important indicative framework, but the Emissions
Trading System (ETS), as a market instrument, and regulatory instruments, such
as the Renewable Energy Directive, more concretely structure the Union’s
pathway towards a low- carbon future. Whereas the ETS applies one instrument
across the EU, community regulations acknowledge the needs for tailored strategies in each member state.
The national, sub- national, and local pathways needed to achieve these international and national decarbonisation targets are much more complex than
international agreements let on. Indeed, any such high- level policies are not
meaningful if lower-level contexts are insufficiently understood. Top- down
approaches, in terms of both policy choices and policy analysis, insufficiently
reflect the realities on the ground. They should be complemented by bottom- up
approaches that consider the unique circumstances of a varied group of stakeholders – particularly in order to understand barriers to the implementation of
relevant policy choices, as well as their potential negative consequences and
positive side effects. Fully understanding such risks and respective opportunities
requires a diverse and flexible set of methods, and deep involvement of stakeholders. This is because a risk is not only context dependent but also largely
depends on its perception, i.e. the eye of the beholder. Risk categories drawn
from a single discipline therefore only constitute a limited subset of possible
risks. These are often risks for which data is available and can therefore be
quantified in terms of mathematical probabilities or variance. However, because
they neglect risks that cannot be grasped by computable data, they may not be
able to provide a complete picture for decision making or may insufficiently
explain decisions made.
This book attempts to illustrate the diverse set of risks and uncertainties –
both quantifiable and non- quantifiable – associated with low- carbon transition