13 Kenya
Risks and uncertainties around lowcarbon energy pathways
Oliver W. Johnson, Hannah Wanjiru, Mbeo Ogeya,
and Francis X. Johnson
Introduction
Like many countries in sub- Saharan Africa, Kenya has high development ambitions, aiming to become a middle- income country by 2030 (Government of
Kenya, 2007). These ambitions are based upon a low- carbon, climate- resilient
development pathway, as set out in Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to global climate change mitigation under the UNFCCC (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2015). These ambitions depend on
rapid expansion of the energy sector to increase the access, security, and affordability of energy service provision (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2016).
There are multiple, complementary pathways that Kenya might pursue to
achieve these goals. In this chapter, we focus on two of those pathways: expansion of geothermal power development and development of greater sustainable
charcoal production.
In the power sector, the country’s abundant renewable energy resources offer
significant opportunities for pursuing low- carbon development pathways. Geothermal in particular is poised to play an important role in such pathways. Having
already moved from niche technology to the mainstream, geothermal power
development now sits at an important threshold: after years of public- led investment in development of the geothermal sector, Kenya is seeking more privatesector-led expansion of its vast remaining geothermal resources (Musembi, 2014).
As a world leader on geothermal energy, the Kenyan experience offers valuable
lessons for research and has already been analysed in global comparisons of
sustainability indicators (Shortall, Davidsdottir, and Axelsson, 2015).
At the same time, Kenya is seeking to modernise its cooking sector, which
remains dominated by traditional biomass fuels with significant negative impacts
on land, ecology, and emissions. Increasing urbanisation will have significant
implications for forest resources if charcoal continues to remain the most affordable and accessible urban cooking fuel. However, more research is needed to
better understand the complexities and uncertainties around greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions in land- use and biomass sectors (Dalla Longa and van der
Zwaan, 2017). Through a mix of regulation, promotion of improved kilns and
cookstoves, and support of alternative fuels, Kenya seeks a dual approach of
Risks and uncertainties around lowcarbon energy pathways
Oliver W. Johnson, Hannah Wanjiru, Mbeo Ogeya,
and Francis X. Johnson
Introduction
Like many countries in sub- Saharan Africa, Kenya has high development ambitions, aiming to become a middle- income country by 2030 (Government of
Kenya, 2007). These ambitions are based upon a low- carbon, climate- resilient
development pathway, as set out in Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to global climate change mitigation under the UNFCCC (Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2015). These ambitions depend on
rapid expansion of the energy sector to increase the access, security, and affordability of energy service provision (Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, 2016).
There are multiple, complementary pathways that Kenya might pursue to
achieve these goals. In this chapter, we focus on two of those pathways: expansion of geothermal power development and development of greater sustainable
charcoal production.
In the power sector, the country’s abundant renewable energy resources offer
significant opportunities for pursuing low- carbon development pathways. Geothermal in particular is poised to play an important role in such pathways. Having
already moved from niche technology to the mainstream, geothermal power
development now sits at an important threshold: after years of public- led investment in development of the geothermal sector, Kenya is seeking more privatesector-led expansion of its vast remaining geothermal resources (Musembi, 2014).
As a world leader on geothermal energy, the Kenyan experience offers valuable
lessons for research and has already been analysed in global comparisons of
sustainability indicators (Shortall, Davidsdottir, and Axelsson, 2015).
At the same time, Kenya is seeking to modernise its cooking sector, which
remains dominated by traditional biomass fuels with significant negative impacts
on land, ecology, and emissions. Increasing urbanisation will have significant
implications for forest resources if charcoal continues to remain the most affordable and accessible urban cooking fuel. However, more research is needed to
better understand the complexities and uncertainties around greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions in land- use and biomass sectors (Dalla Longa and van der
Zwaan, 2017). Through a mix of regulation, promotion of improved kilns and
cookstoves, and support of alternative fuels, Kenya seeks a dual approach of