194 Alexandros Nikas et al.
interviewed policymakers practically rejected any notable impact, but nevertheless expressed their concern of such a probability. Although most experts agreed
on the possibility that an energy- efficient transformation of the Greek economy
might discourage new investments, about half of the engaged stakeholders considered that such an impact would be virtually non- existent. Besides, as most of
the involved representatives of the banking and policymaking community
noted, the capacity to mitigate such an effect is relatively high, provided that
the policy strategies promoting the required transformations are effectively and
sustainably designed.
Stakeholders compared these risks of the envisaged transition pathway along
multiple criteria including the likelihood for them to occur and the severity of
their impact. They also examined respective policy strategies with regard to
these risks, including the capacity to mitigate their impact and the level of the
stakeholders’ concern. From their perspective, the most critical concern is the
possibility of another tariff deficit, followed by a potential negative effect on
poverty in the country. Following these, stakeholders collectively found that
other negative socio- economic implications of actions towards an energyefficient economy for private investments and unemployment are relatively
insignificant.
Finally, stakeholders believe that sustainable future strategies, in a scenario
where climate change remains contained, should be based on behavioural
change. However, under scenarios with considerable mitigation and adaptation
challenges, with higher probabilities of the identified implementation risks
manifesting, they consider improving energy efficiency in the public building
stock to be the most robust strategy (Nikas, Ntanos, and Doukas, 2019).
Conclusions
This narrative illustrates the uncertainties and risks associated with energy efficiency actions towards a future autonomous, nearly- zero-energy building sector,
drawing from the expertise of and tacit knowledge embedded in experts coming
from relevant stakeholder groups. Based on the conditions characterising an
environment that is highly uncertain across the economic, regulatory. and
socio- political axes, this research highlights the most important implementation
and consequential risks of a transition pathway aiming to enhance energy efficiency. It does this over two different time horizons.
In the near term, stakeholders worry mostly about the current adverse market
conditions, the bureaucratic nature of the processes associated with the implementation of measures and funding or incentivising investments, and the difficulties in aligning municipal priorities with the obligations of the central
government. These are the main perceived implementation risks hindering
Greek efforts to meet the national commitments on energy efficiency targets.
In the longer term, broader sets of risks appear to jeopardise the success of a
low- carbon and energy- efficient transition of the Greek economy. On one level,
a multitude of implementation risks are identified, the most important of which
interviewed policymakers practically rejected any notable impact, but nevertheless expressed their concern of such a probability. Although most experts agreed
on the possibility that an energy- efficient transformation of the Greek economy
might discourage new investments, about half of the engaged stakeholders considered that such an impact would be virtually non- existent. Besides, as most of
the involved representatives of the banking and policymaking community
noted, the capacity to mitigate such an effect is relatively high, provided that
the policy strategies promoting the required transformations are effectively and
sustainably designed.
Stakeholders compared these risks of the envisaged transition pathway along
multiple criteria including the likelihood for them to occur and the severity of
their impact. They also examined respective policy strategies with regard to
these risks, including the capacity to mitigate their impact and the level of the
stakeholders’ concern. From their perspective, the most critical concern is the
possibility of another tariff deficit, followed by a potential negative effect on
poverty in the country. Following these, stakeholders collectively found that
other negative socio- economic implications of actions towards an energyefficient economy for private investments and unemployment are relatively
insignificant.
Finally, stakeholders believe that sustainable future strategies, in a scenario
where climate change remains contained, should be based on behavioural
change. However, under scenarios with considerable mitigation and adaptation
challenges, with higher probabilities of the identified implementation risks
manifesting, they consider improving energy efficiency in the public building
stock to be the most robust strategy (Nikas, Ntanos, and Doukas, 2019).
Conclusions
This narrative illustrates the uncertainties and risks associated with energy efficiency actions towards a future autonomous, nearly- zero-energy building sector,
drawing from the expertise of and tacit knowledge embedded in experts coming
from relevant stakeholder groups. Based on the conditions characterising an
environment that is highly uncertain across the economic, regulatory. and
socio- political axes, this research highlights the most important implementation
and consequential risks of a transition pathway aiming to enhance energy efficiency. It does this over two different time horizons.
In the near term, stakeholders worry mostly about the current adverse market
conditions, the bureaucratic nature of the processes associated with the implementation of measures and funding or incentivising investments, and the difficulties in aligning municipal priorities with the obligations of the central
government. These are the main perceived implementation risks hindering
Greek efforts to meet the national commitments on energy efficiency targets.
In the longer term, broader sets of risks appear to jeopardise the success of a
low- carbon and energy- efficient transition of the Greek economy. On one level,
a multitude of implementation risks are identified, the most important of which