China 173
current energy efficiency standard. In 2015 there were almost 60 billion square
metres of existing buildings in China, and less than 10% are rated as an energy
efficient building. Residential energy efficient buildings accounted for 23.1% of
existing build area of all types (Lu et al., 2018). Residential buildings in Shanghai have exceeded 600 million square metres, with about 200 million square
metres of them built before 2000 and more than 5.5 million households living
there. Residential buildings aged over 50 years have reached 14.77 million
square metres. Thus, the investment necessary for retrofitting existing building
is very high and will rely on the participation of many stakeholder groups from
both the market and the public sector. However, stakeholders representing the
general public and construction markets perceived low benefits or returns in
their expectations for investments in green buildings and showed a lack of willingness to participate in the retrofitting projects.
Stakeholders indicated that changing coal- fired boilers to electric power or
natural gas heaters would not lead to reductions in carbon emissions. They also
suggested that behaviour change needs to be consider in order to reduce energy
consumption and decarbonise the electricity system. For instance, China’s
smog- plagued northern regions have been replacing coal- fired boilers with
natural gas and electricity- powered heaters. Over 4.7 million households in
21,516 villages in the inspected area have completed coal- to-gas or coal- toelectricity conversion, 3.94 million of which finished the switch in 2018,
according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection (Bo, 2018). The programme, as discussed earlier, is mainly implemented in the rural area of northern China, including the 2 + 26 cities. Experts warned that if coal- fired boilers
are simply replaced with electricity- powered heaters, there may be no energy
saving because over 70% of electricity is generated from coal and the efficiency
of coal- burning power generation is less than 40%. Better alternatives would
include heat pumps. Clean heating with gas, electricity, clean coal, and renewable energy including biomass, wind, solar, etc. cover about 34% of the total
built area now; however, completing this transition is a great challenge for
China, especially in rural areas. Beijing and Tianjin have almost completed
their transitions, but other cities may have difficulties.
Consequential risks (negative impacts) and uncertainties
A low- carbon transition in the building sector may bring unintended negative
impacts on economic efficiency, social development, technological innovation,
and environmental sustainability. All are risks related to energy efficiency and
renewable energy components of the green building pathway (Figure 10.3).
There are fewer consequential risks identified compared to implementation
risks, since many of the negative impacts are not yet known for these relatively
new energy initiatives in the building sector.
Stakeholder concern is mainly focused on potential negative impacts on economic and social factors, along with environmental conditions. Stakeholders
from all the different groups agreed that the main consequential risks result from
current energy efficiency standard. In 2015 there were almost 60 billion square
metres of existing buildings in China, and less than 10% are rated as an energy
efficient building. Residential energy efficient buildings accounted for 23.1% of
existing build area of all types (Lu et al., 2018). Residential buildings in Shanghai have exceeded 600 million square metres, with about 200 million square
metres of them built before 2000 and more than 5.5 million households living
there. Residential buildings aged over 50 years have reached 14.77 million
square metres. Thus, the investment necessary for retrofitting existing building
is very high and will rely on the participation of many stakeholder groups from
both the market and the public sector. However, stakeholders representing the
general public and construction markets perceived low benefits or returns in
their expectations for investments in green buildings and showed a lack of willingness to participate in the retrofitting projects.
Stakeholders indicated that changing coal- fired boilers to electric power or
natural gas heaters would not lead to reductions in carbon emissions. They also
suggested that behaviour change needs to be consider in order to reduce energy
consumption and decarbonise the electricity system. For instance, China’s
smog- plagued northern regions have been replacing coal- fired boilers with
natural gas and electricity- powered heaters. Over 4.7 million households in
21,516 villages in the inspected area have completed coal- to-gas or coal- toelectricity conversion, 3.94 million of which finished the switch in 2018,
according to the Ministry of Environmental Protection (Bo, 2018). The programme, as discussed earlier, is mainly implemented in the rural area of northern China, including the 2 + 26 cities. Experts warned that if coal- fired boilers
are simply replaced with electricity- powered heaters, there may be no energy
saving because over 70% of electricity is generated from coal and the efficiency
of coal- burning power generation is less than 40%. Better alternatives would
include heat pumps. Clean heating with gas, electricity, clean coal, and renewable energy including biomass, wind, solar, etc. cover about 34% of the total
built area now; however, completing this transition is a great challenge for
China, especially in rural areas. Beijing and Tianjin have almost completed
their transitions, but other cities may have difficulties.
Consequential risks (negative impacts) and uncertainties
A low- carbon transition in the building sector may bring unintended negative
impacts on economic efficiency, social development, technological innovation,
and environmental sustainability. All are risks related to energy efficiency and
renewable energy components of the green building pathway (Figure 10.3).
There are fewer consequential risks identified compared to implementation
risks, since many of the negative impacts are not yet known for these relatively
new energy initiatives in the building sector.
Stakeholder concern is mainly focused on potential negative impacts on economic and social factors, along with environmental conditions. Stakeholders
from all the different groups agreed that the main consequential risks result from