10 China
Risks and uncertainties in low- carbon
pathways for the urban building sector
Lei Song, Jenny Lieu, and Ying Chen
Introduction
China has become both the world’s largest energy producer and consumer. It
has a comprehensive energy supply system based on coal, electricity, oil, natural
gas, and renewable energy, meeting the basic demands for socio- economic
development. However, China’s energy production and consumption are also
facing difficult decarbonisation challenges due to rapid economic development,
abundant endowment of coal, population growth, and urban development.
The country has experienced the fastest economic expansion of any major
economy in the world and has taken 500 million of its population out of poverty.
Today, China is the second largest economy in the world, with an overall GDP of
¥67.67 trillion (US$11.06 trillion) in 2015 (NBS, 2016a). Economic growth is
now slowing, falling to 6.9% in 2015 compared with the average rate of 9.7% from
1979 to 2014. During the 13th Five- Year Plan (2016–2020) period, China’s
potential average growth rate is expected to drop to 6.3%, indicating that China’s
economy is transitioning from high to medium- high growth.
This growth has been accompanied by increasing energy demand. Even
though the energy supply and consumption structure has been improving in
China, the long- term socio- economic development will continue to rely on
coal, of which China has large resources, resulting in increasing carbon emissions. Energy consumption in building, transport, and daily living sectors in particular will keep on increasing. As of 2014, transport and housing have become
the largest growth areas for energy consumption in China (Wei and He, 2017).
China’s population exceeded 1.38 billion in 2016. Urbanisation levels
reached over 57% – around 3% higher than the global average (NBS, 2016a).
Although the speed of urbanisation has slowed somewhat – down from nearly
4% in 2010 to around 2.5% in 2016 – the urban population is expected to reach
65% by 2020. Along with urban population growth, rising living standards in
cities, locked- in energy infrastructure, and transport- related activities will contribute significantly to increasing carbon emissions. Cities will therefore need to
make major carbon emission reductions in the present and future.
Increasing urban population and density have driven both the rapid development of the building industry and rising energy consumption in China. In 2015,
Risks and uncertainties in low- carbon
pathways for the urban building sector
Lei Song, Jenny Lieu, and Ying Chen
Introduction
China has become both the world’s largest energy producer and consumer. It
has a comprehensive energy supply system based on coal, electricity, oil, natural
gas, and renewable energy, meeting the basic demands for socio- economic
development. However, China’s energy production and consumption are also
facing difficult decarbonisation challenges due to rapid economic development,
abundant endowment of coal, population growth, and urban development.
The country has experienced the fastest economic expansion of any major
economy in the world and has taken 500 million of its population out of poverty.
Today, China is the second largest economy in the world, with an overall GDP of
¥67.67 trillion (US$11.06 trillion) in 2015 (NBS, 2016a). Economic growth is
now slowing, falling to 6.9% in 2015 compared with the average rate of 9.7% from
1979 to 2014. During the 13th Five- Year Plan (2016–2020) period, China’s
potential average growth rate is expected to drop to 6.3%, indicating that China’s
economy is transitioning from high to medium- high growth.
This growth has been accompanied by increasing energy demand. Even
though the energy supply and consumption structure has been improving in
China, the long- term socio- economic development will continue to rely on
coal, of which China has large resources, resulting in increasing carbon emissions. Energy consumption in building, transport, and daily living sectors in particular will keep on increasing. As of 2014, transport and housing have become
the largest growth areas for energy consumption in China (Wei and He, 2017).
China’s population exceeded 1.38 billion in 2016. Urbanisation levels
reached over 57% – around 3% higher than the global average (NBS, 2016a).
Although the speed of urbanisation has slowed somewhat – down from nearly
4% in 2010 to around 2.5% in 2016 – the urban population is expected to reach
65% by 2020. Along with urban population growth, rising living standards in
cities, locked- in energy infrastructure, and transport- related activities will contribute significantly to increasing carbon emissions. Cities will therefore need to
make major carbon emission reductions in the present and future.
Increasing urban population and density have driven both the rapid development of the building industry and rising energy consumption in China. In 2015,