Switzerland 145
Risks and uncertainties
Risks to the Swiss renewables transition emerge at two levels. The first level is
the new risks that replacing nuclear with renewables brings: intermittency,
when no electricity can be produced as the sun is not shining, the wind is not
blowing or rivers are frozen; failures in our electricity grid from extreme weather
events such as from storms, icing, and landslides; and public opposition to new
energy installations such as solar panels, wind turbines, and power lines.
Any combination of intermittency and grid failure may lead to power losses
and blackouts in a country that is used to an extremely reliable supply of electricity. The pathways that we examine trade off these two risks: wind turbines in
Switzerland produce less than half of what they do in Denmark (see renewables.
ninja) but are close to the Swiss power grid; solar power from North Africa has
very predictable output but needs long and vulnerable transmission lines that
cross several countries.
For solar farms we find inherent tension between using land for nature or
agriculture and infrastructure. This applies especially in Switzerland as much of
its mountainous terrain is ill suited to infrastructure and the rest of the country
is fairly densely inhabited. Furthermore, the need for permits and grid connections makes solar farms unattractive to utilities at current bulk electricity prices.
By contrast, rooftop PV and solar heaters only need to compete with residential
electricity prices, which are higher due to inclusion of grid fees and taxes.
Installing PV on non- building infrastructure, like avalanche protection barriers,
is possible, but such projects are still experimental and expensive.
The second level of risk is in the aggregate, or how the risks for the individual projects and technologies affect the overall Swiss energy strategy. While
individual renewable projects may supply intermittent power or get disconnected, combining many different sources and existing Swiss hydropower can
lead to a stable supply. However, public support is more difficult at the project
level than in aggregate: on the national level, this is just an abstract percentage
of supply, while on the cantonal level it is a question of where the infrastructure
will be located, and on the local level it is a binary choice of having the infrastructure in your back yard or not. This is particularly fraught because local residents may experience fewer of the benefits and more of the drawbacks of a
project that benefits the country as a whole.
Consequential risks (negative impacts)
Switzerland has one of the most reliable electricity supplies in the world right
now, and its inhabitants see this as the right and proper natural state of things.
Existing proposals implicitly or explicitly commit to operational security of
supply, suggesting that the Swiss are unlikely to compromise on reliability for
the sake of independence, climate, or a nuclear phase out. This stability can also
not come at unlimited cost. We see two risks that would cause renewable electricity to lead to an unstable supply of electricity: intermittency and grid failure.
Risks and uncertainties
Risks to the Swiss renewables transition emerge at two levels. The first level is
the new risks that replacing nuclear with renewables brings: intermittency,
when no electricity can be produced as the sun is not shining, the wind is not
blowing or rivers are frozen; failures in our electricity grid from extreme weather
events such as from storms, icing, and landslides; and public opposition to new
energy installations such as solar panels, wind turbines, and power lines.
Any combination of intermittency and grid failure may lead to power losses
and blackouts in a country that is used to an extremely reliable supply of electricity. The pathways that we examine trade off these two risks: wind turbines in
Switzerland produce less than half of what they do in Denmark (see renewables.
ninja) but are close to the Swiss power grid; solar power from North Africa has
very predictable output but needs long and vulnerable transmission lines that
cross several countries.
For solar farms we find inherent tension between using land for nature or
agriculture and infrastructure. This applies especially in Switzerland as much of
its mountainous terrain is ill suited to infrastructure and the rest of the country
is fairly densely inhabited. Furthermore, the need for permits and grid connections makes solar farms unattractive to utilities at current bulk electricity prices.
By contrast, rooftop PV and solar heaters only need to compete with residential
electricity prices, which are higher due to inclusion of grid fees and taxes.
Installing PV on non- building infrastructure, like avalanche protection barriers,
is possible, but such projects are still experimental and expensive.
The second level of risk is in the aggregate, or how the risks for the individual projects and technologies affect the overall Swiss energy strategy. While
individual renewable projects may supply intermittent power or get disconnected, combining many different sources and existing Swiss hydropower can
lead to a stable supply. However, public support is more difficult at the project
level than in aggregate: on the national level, this is just an abstract percentage
of supply, while on the cantonal level it is a question of where the infrastructure
will be located, and on the local level it is a binary choice of having the infrastructure in your back yard or not. This is particularly fraught because local residents may experience fewer of the benefits and more of the drawbacks of a
project that benefits the country as a whole.
Consequential risks (negative impacts)
Switzerland has one of the most reliable electricity supplies in the world right
now, and its inhabitants see this as the right and proper natural state of things.
Existing proposals implicitly or explicitly commit to operational security of
supply, suggesting that the Swiss are unlikely to compromise on reliability for
the sake of independence, climate, or a nuclear phase out. This stability can also
not come at unlimited cost. We see two risks that would cause renewable electricity to lead to an unstable supply of electricity: intermittency and grid failure.