outflowing water through the Strait of Gibraltar. In addition, other projects such as
VANIMEDAT-2 (Jordá et al. 2011) aimed at exploring the sea level variability
under climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century.
NEMOMED oceanic models are regional versions of the NEMO model on the
Mediterranean basin with different spatial resolutions: NEMOMED-12 (Waldman
et al. 2017), NEMOMED-16 (Soto-Navarro et al. 2015) or NEMOMED-8.
NEMOMED-8 model (Beuvier et al. 2010) has a horizontal resolution from 9 to
12 km (North to South). The circulation through the strait is simulated with realistic
Atlantic Waters (AW). These models are used for coupled system regional climate
system models (RCSMs) (Sevault et al. 2014; Adloff et al. 2015), which include a
high-resolution and fully coupled representation of most of the physical components
of the regional climate system (atmosphere, land surface, vegetation, hydrology,
rivers, and ocean). Padorno et al. (2012) observed in their simulations for 140 years
(1960–2099) with NEMOMED-8 that the main changes are warming and saltening
waters, mean sea level increase, thermohaline circulation variations, and that deep
water convection changes. Adloff et al. (2015) study the period 2001–2099
(NEMOMED-8), following different socio-economic scenarios (IPCC SRES). In
most of the cases, they found an increase in the future Mediterranean SST and SSS
and that MTHC tends to reach a situation similar to the Eastern Mediterranean
Transient (EMT). The EMT, which took place in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to
1995, is considered the most relevant intermediate to deep Mediterranean
overturning perturbation registered by instrumental records (Tsimplis et al. 2006;
Roether et al. 2007, 2014; Lejeusne et al. 2010; Incarbona et al. 2016). In the 1990s,
the Aegean Sea began to discharge unusually dense waters inducing the so-called
EMT which was caused by the accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine
and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in
the Sicily Channel.
Richon et al. (2018) used NEMOMED-8 coupled with biogeochemical model
PISCES. In an A2 IPCC SRES scenario, projections for the twenty-first century
indicate a warming, increased stratification, and changes in Atlantic and river inputs
which can lead to an accumulation of nitrate (whereas no for phosphorus) in the
Mediterranean Sea and a decrease in biological productivity. Most coupled climate–
marine biogeochemical models also predict a decline in NPP in the coming decades
as a response to global warming (Bopp et al. 2001, 2013; Steinacher et al. 2010).
Multi-model projections, such as the ones obtained from the World Climate
Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3)
multi-model projections have been used to analyzed hydroclimatic changes in the
Mediterranean over the twenty-first century (Mariotti et al. 2008). By 2070–2099,
the CMIP3 multi-model projections predict an increase in the loss of freshwater over
the Mediterranean Sea due to precipitation reduction and warming-enhanced evaporation. The decrease in river runoff from the surrounding land will further exacerbate the increase in the Mediterranean Sea freshwater deficit.
There are very few modeling studies about the effects of climate change on
plankton community and productivity in the Mediterranean Sea. The MERMEX
program aims to study the response of Mediterranean ecosystems to natural and
236
T. Ramírez et al.
VANIMEDAT-2 (Jordá et al. 2011) aimed at exploring the sea level variability
under climate change scenarios for the twenty-first century.
NEMOMED oceanic models are regional versions of the NEMO model on the
Mediterranean basin with different spatial resolutions: NEMOMED-12 (Waldman
et al. 2017), NEMOMED-16 (Soto-Navarro et al. 2015) or NEMOMED-8.
NEMOMED-8 model (Beuvier et al. 2010) has a horizontal resolution from 9 to
12 km (North to South). The circulation through the strait is simulated with realistic
Atlantic Waters (AW). These models are used for coupled system regional climate
system models (RCSMs) (Sevault et al. 2014; Adloff et al. 2015), which include a
high-resolution and fully coupled representation of most of the physical components
of the regional climate system (atmosphere, land surface, vegetation, hydrology,
rivers, and ocean). Padorno et al. (2012) observed in their simulations for 140 years
(1960–2099) with NEMOMED-8 that the main changes are warming and saltening
waters, mean sea level increase, thermohaline circulation variations, and that deep
water convection changes. Adloff et al. (2015) study the period 2001–2099
(NEMOMED-8), following different socio-economic scenarios (IPCC SRES). In
most of the cases, they found an increase in the future Mediterranean SST and SSS
and that MTHC tends to reach a situation similar to the Eastern Mediterranean
Transient (EMT). The EMT, which took place in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to
1995, is considered the most relevant intermediate to deep Mediterranean
overturning perturbation registered by instrumental records (Tsimplis et al. 2006;
Roether et al. 2007, 2014; Lejeusne et al. 2010; Incarbona et al. 2016). In the 1990s,
the Aegean Sea began to discharge unusually dense waters inducing the so-called
EMT which was caused by the accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine
and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in
the Sicily Channel.
Richon et al. (2018) used NEMOMED-8 coupled with biogeochemical model
PISCES. In an A2 IPCC SRES scenario, projections for the twenty-first century
indicate a warming, increased stratification, and changes in Atlantic and river inputs
which can lead to an accumulation of nitrate (whereas no for phosphorus) in the
Mediterranean Sea and a decrease in biological productivity. Most coupled climate–
marine biogeochemical models also predict a decline in NPP in the coming decades
as a response to global warming (Bopp et al. 2001, 2013; Steinacher et al. 2010).
Multi-model projections, such as the ones obtained from the World Climate
Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3)
multi-model projections have been used to analyzed hydroclimatic changes in the
Mediterranean over the twenty-first century (Mariotti et al. 2008). By 2070–2099,
the CMIP3 multi-model projections predict an increase in the loss of freshwater over
the Mediterranean Sea due to precipitation reduction and warming-enhanced evaporation. The decrease in river runoff from the surrounding land will further exacerbate the increase in the Mediterranean Sea freshwater deficit.
There are very few modeling studies about the effects of climate change on
plankton community and productivity in the Mediterranean Sea. The MERMEX
program aims to study the response of Mediterranean ecosystems to natural and
236
T. Ramírez et al.