carbon. The Little Ice-age followed, resulting in a cooler climate throughout the
seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth century, just until the industrial revolution
gave rise to an unprecedented increase of carbon emissions (Soon and Baliunas
2003).
Current climate change will have an impact on agriculture in the near future. A
growing world population increases the need for food, although area suitable for
agriculture is in decline. In Asia and Africa, rice production, a crop feeding over 20%
of the world’s population, is threatened by an increasing number of climate
extremes. Major production areas are found in low-lying lands and deltas in
Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, Japan, and Egypt. Sea level rise and extremes in
precipitation increase the risk of flooding plantations, leading to an estimated loss up
to 20% in some countries before 2080 (Chen et al. 2012). The combination of a
rising sea level together with the occurrence of more droughts leads to salinization of
soils, decreasing the extent of rice yields. As it takes 2.000 l of water to produce 1 kg
of rice, droughts in particular are forming a major threat. The same accounts for
wheats, corn and potatoes. However, as the equatorial climate becomes more dry, a
shift of these agricultural systems to higher latitudes is halted by other environmental
conditions. For example, the dry and grassy plains of Siberia are not likely to support
the growth of potatoes, rice or wheat, as the seasonal climate here becomes extreme.
In addition, the vast areas of peaty soils of melting permafrost are no option for
regular crop cultivation. As grasslands remain to dominate these areas, the area in
which crops can be grown is diminishing. Still the need for nutrition grows. As the
grassland systems in Eurasia are still able to support cattle and livestock breeding,
the consumption of meat may become an increasingly inevitable alternative. An
alternative that will further increase the pressure of climate change and environment
change.
Let us return to the clearing of rain forests in the Amazon area for the construction
of soy fields, to show the complexity of such global issues. Already in 2006, the
Netherlands (one of the largest soy importers of the world) declared the Amazon to a
no go area for commodity traders and processers. It was decided not to purchase
products from areas in the Amazon that have been deforested after 2008. As a result,
the soy production shifted to other areas in Brazil that were less protected, such as
the savannah area of the Cerrado. Another escape was found in the likewise less
protected forest areas of Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina. In response to this, the
Dutch government decided, in 2015, to restrict the import of the product to soy that
meet the strict standards of the Round Table on Responsible Soy (RTRS), an
international collaboration between governments, retailers and producers. Again,
there is a snag in the grass. The strict rules only apply that the soy that is used for the
production of meat, eggs and diary for the Dutch market, not for the products that
will be exported. Within the context of this, it is a sad prospect that in Brazil,
Paraguay and Argentina, still 110 million hectares of forest are registered to be cut
legally, a staggering 20% of the entire amazon area (De Volkskrant,
31 August 2019).
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J. H. J. Schaminée and N. M. van Rooijen
seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth century, just until the industrial revolution
gave rise to an unprecedented increase of carbon emissions (Soon and Baliunas
2003).
Current climate change will have an impact on agriculture in the near future. A
growing world population increases the need for food, although area suitable for
agriculture is in decline. In Asia and Africa, rice production, a crop feeding over 20%
of the world’s population, is threatened by an increasing number of climate
extremes. Major production areas are found in low-lying lands and deltas in
Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, Japan, and Egypt. Sea level rise and extremes in
precipitation increase the risk of flooding plantations, leading to an estimated loss up
to 20% in some countries before 2080 (Chen et al. 2012). The combination of a
rising sea level together with the occurrence of more droughts leads to salinization of
soils, decreasing the extent of rice yields. As it takes 2.000 l of water to produce 1 kg
of rice, droughts in particular are forming a major threat. The same accounts for
wheats, corn and potatoes. However, as the equatorial climate becomes more dry, a
shift of these agricultural systems to higher latitudes is halted by other environmental
conditions. For example, the dry and grassy plains of Siberia are not likely to support
the growth of potatoes, rice or wheat, as the seasonal climate here becomes extreme.
In addition, the vast areas of peaty soils of melting permafrost are no option for
regular crop cultivation. As grasslands remain to dominate these areas, the area in
which crops can be grown is diminishing. Still the need for nutrition grows. As the
grassland systems in Eurasia are still able to support cattle and livestock breeding,
the consumption of meat may become an increasingly inevitable alternative. An
alternative that will further increase the pressure of climate change and environment
change.
Let us return to the clearing of rain forests in the Amazon area for the construction
of soy fields, to show the complexity of such global issues. Already in 2006, the
Netherlands (one of the largest soy importers of the world) declared the Amazon to a
no go area for commodity traders and processers. It was decided not to purchase
products from areas in the Amazon that have been deforested after 2008. As a result,
the soy production shifted to other areas in Brazil that were less protected, such as
the savannah area of the Cerrado. Another escape was found in the likewise less
protected forest areas of Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina. In response to this, the
Dutch government decided, in 2015, to restrict the import of the product to soy that
meet the strict standards of the Round Table on Responsible Soy (RTRS), an
international collaboration between governments, retailers and producers. Again,
there is a snag in the grass. The strict rules only apply that the soy that is used for the
production of meat, eggs and diary for the Dutch market, not for the products that
will be exported. Within the context of this, it is a sad prospect that in Brazil,
Paraguay and Argentina, still 110 million hectares of forest are registered to be cut
legally, a staggering 20% of the entire amazon area (De Volkskrant,
31 August 2019).
416
J. H. J. Schaminée and N. M. van Rooijen