6 Challenges and Future Perspectives in the Light of Land
Use and Climate Change
Reliable planning of future potential nature-based protection of coastal habitats
depends on ideally precise scientific models of expected relative sea-level rise at
regional to global scales, a good knowledge on the geomorphology of the landscape,
a broad understanding of the dynamics and ecology of coastal habitats and their
major threats in the region, the availability of reliable socio-economic data, and a
further development of improved models integrating these major components to
calculate best possible future scenarios. Regarding the implementation of scientific
results, Spalding et al. (2014) additionally highlight the need of tools and decision
support systems helping communities to understand coastal hazards in their region
and finding nature-based solutions for future protection of the coast. Provided that
research-driven, nature-based development of strategies for coastal protection is
given, we assume that for many communities which are exposed to flood risk or
other problematic factors, one can obtain a decreased vulnerability.
The climate changed dramatically during the last 30,000 years and the global
sea-level arose by 120–140 m since last glacial maximum. Thus, coastal habitats had
to migrate vertically and horizontally—on occasion up to hundreds of kilometres—
in relation to the shifting climate zones (Ray and Adams 2001). Likewise in recent
times, the coastal systems are subdue to many factors, making it hard to forecast the
available area for coastal habits in the future. Geomorphological aspects such as
horizontal and vertical movements of the earth’ crust) also reflect parts of the current
ongoing change of coastal landscapes. This includes the regional land-upheaval
caused by glacial rebound, which for instance can be observed in Scandinavia
(Hill and Wallström 2008). Opposite in character is coastal subsidence, as can be
seen in certain delta areas such as the Huanghe Delta, New Orleans. Some of the
towns, cities and habitats at the coast are sinking faster than the sea level is rising.
Subsidence drivers are both natural and anthropogenic processes (Meckel et al.
2006; Syvitski et al. 2009; Strozzi et al. 2013; Auerbach et al. 2015).
Such geological processes, also including erosion and sedimentation, and human
activities such as the creation of artificial islands caused an increase in coastal area of
13600 km
2 between 1985 and 2015 (Donchyts et al. 2016). However, the increased
area of coastal land does not, in any means, guarantee the quality and quantity of
natural coastal habitats in the future.
Different processes and land use change will have different effects to humans and
biodiversity. Although climate-related extremes such as floods and hurricanes imply
a much higher risk for humans and human buildings at the coast than for natural
habitats, which evolved under dynamic conditions and are adopted to strong coastal
wind and water dynamics (Nishida et al. 2017), natural resilience of coastal habitats
is now often impaired by anthropogenic factors, and climate extremes have become a
growing threat to these systems.
Combined factors of massive land-use and climate change add new challenges to
the future of coastal landscapes and may ultimately result in small and rather isolated
302
C. Hobohm et al.
Use and Climate Change
Reliable planning of future potential nature-based protection of coastal habitats
depends on ideally precise scientific models of expected relative sea-level rise at
regional to global scales, a good knowledge on the geomorphology of the landscape,
a broad understanding of the dynamics and ecology of coastal habitats and their
major threats in the region, the availability of reliable socio-economic data, and a
further development of improved models integrating these major components to
calculate best possible future scenarios. Regarding the implementation of scientific
results, Spalding et al. (2014) additionally highlight the need of tools and decision
support systems helping communities to understand coastal hazards in their region
and finding nature-based solutions for future protection of the coast. Provided that
research-driven, nature-based development of strategies for coastal protection is
given, we assume that for many communities which are exposed to flood risk or
other problematic factors, one can obtain a decreased vulnerability.
The climate changed dramatically during the last 30,000 years and the global
sea-level arose by 120–140 m since last glacial maximum. Thus, coastal habitats had
to migrate vertically and horizontally—on occasion up to hundreds of kilometres—
in relation to the shifting climate zones (Ray and Adams 2001). Likewise in recent
times, the coastal systems are subdue to many factors, making it hard to forecast the
available area for coastal habits in the future. Geomorphological aspects such as
horizontal and vertical movements of the earth’ crust) also reflect parts of the current
ongoing change of coastal landscapes. This includes the regional land-upheaval
caused by glacial rebound, which for instance can be observed in Scandinavia
(Hill and Wallström 2008). Opposite in character is coastal subsidence, as can be
seen in certain delta areas such as the Huanghe Delta, New Orleans. Some of the
towns, cities and habitats at the coast are sinking faster than the sea level is rising.
Subsidence drivers are both natural and anthropogenic processes (Meckel et al.
2006; Syvitski et al. 2009; Strozzi et al. 2013; Auerbach et al. 2015).
Such geological processes, also including erosion and sedimentation, and human
activities such as the creation of artificial islands caused an increase in coastal area of
13600 km
2 between 1985 and 2015 (Donchyts et al. 2016). However, the increased
area of coastal land does not, in any means, guarantee the quality and quantity of
natural coastal habitats in the future.
Different processes and land use change will have different effects to humans and
biodiversity. Although climate-related extremes such as floods and hurricanes imply
a much higher risk for humans and human buildings at the coast than for natural
habitats, which evolved under dynamic conditions and are adopted to strong coastal
wind and water dynamics (Nishida et al. 2017), natural resilience of coastal habitats
is now often impaired by anthropogenic factors, and climate extremes have become a
growing threat to these systems.
Combined factors of massive land-use and climate change add new challenges to
the future of coastal landscapes and may ultimately result in small and rather isolated
302
C. Hobohm et al.