142
K. McKenna and L. T. Yakam
Climate Related Risks and Hazards Facing PNG’s
Communities
85% of the PNG population live in rural areas (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018), where
subsistence agriculture is central to the daily lives of most communities (RudiakGould 2014). More than three-quarters of food consumed in PNG is locally grown
(Schmidt et al. 2019). Common food crops are sweet potato, banana (both sweet
and cooking varieties), yam and taro (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018; Schmidt et al.
2019). Most households in PNG sell some of the crops they produce in addition to
cash crops like cocoa, betel nut and vanilla, but this varies by area (Schmidt et al.
2019). Crops for food production (e.g. roots, vegetables and fruits) are sold mostly
to consumers at local markets (Schmidt et al. 2019), providing a source of income
that can be more stable and reliable than export tree crops (Sharp 2019).
PNG has a young and growing population and is expected to increase from 7.6
million to over 10 million by 2030 (Hayward-Jones 2016). Concerns have been raised
about future land shortages for food production (Koczberski et al. 2018), alongside
continued human development challenges. Although rich in natural resources, the
Asian Development Bank (2020) estimates that 37.5% of the PNG population live
below the National Poverty Line. Incomes and poverty levels vary across the country
and within provinces (Gibson et al. 2005), influenced by factors such as access to
schools (Anderson 2008), road infrastructure (Wiegand et al. 2017), electricity provision, locations of health centres, and economic development opportunities (CCDA
2017). Climate-related hazards could amplify existing challenges and add new ones
(OCCD 2014). Key risks include (OCCD 2014):
• Coastal flooding and sea-level rise
• Worsened effects and spread of malaria
• Inland flooding, driven by heavy irregular rainfalls
• Sea temperature increase and acidification
• Landslides, triggered by increased rainfall intensity and land use changes
• Variability in agricultural yields
The impacts of climate change are likely to be experienced differently within PNG
owing to the country’s environmental diversity. Yet general nationwide concerns
arise from changes in temperature and rainfall patterns and their impacts on agricultural yields and even the type of crops that can be grown (Ramakrishna and Bang
2018). Impacts on agricultural production arguably receive less international attention compared to those linked to sea-level rise which is affecting PNG’s coastal
and low-island communities (Connell 2016). This seems surprising given the importance of domestic/subsistence agriculture to the welfare of the majority of Papua
New Guineans (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018).
Analysts also argue that the focus on averages typically depicted in climate change
models could be a distraction from the greater risks to PNG posed to by climatic
extremes of drought/flood cycles (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018; Jacka 2009). In
2015/2016 for example, much of rural PNG suffered a severe El Niño associated
K. McKenna and L. T. Yakam
Climate Related Risks and Hazards Facing PNG’s
Communities
85% of the PNG population live in rural areas (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018), where
subsistence agriculture is central to the daily lives of most communities (RudiakGould 2014). More than three-quarters of food consumed in PNG is locally grown
(Schmidt et al. 2019). Common food crops are sweet potato, banana (both sweet
and cooking varieties), yam and taro (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018; Schmidt et al.
2019). Most households in PNG sell some of the crops they produce in addition to
cash crops like cocoa, betel nut and vanilla, but this varies by area (Schmidt et al.
2019). Crops for food production (e.g. roots, vegetables and fruits) are sold mostly
to consumers at local markets (Schmidt et al. 2019), providing a source of income
that can be more stable and reliable than export tree crops (Sharp 2019).
PNG has a young and growing population and is expected to increase from 7.6
million to over 10 million by 2030 (Hayward-Jones 2016). Concerns have been raised
about future land shortages for food production (Koczberski et al. 2018), alongside
continued human development challenges. Although rich in natural resources, the
Asian Development Bank (2020) estimates that 37.5% of the PNG population live
below the National Poverty Line. Incomes and poverty levels vary across the country
and within provinces (Gibson et al. 2005), influenced by factors such as access to
schools (Anderson 2008), road infrastructure (Wiegand et al. 2017), electricity provision, locations of health centres, and economic development opportunities (CCDA
2017). Climate-related hazards could amplify existing challenges and add new ones
(OCCD 2014). Key risks include (OCCD 2014):
• Coastal flooding and sea-level rise
• Worsened effects and spread of malaria
• Inland flooding, driven by heavy irregular rainfalls
• Sea temperature increase and acidification
• Landslides, triggered by increased rainfall intensity and land use changes
• Variability in agricultural yields
The impacts of climate change are likely to be experienced differently within PNG
owing to the country’s environmental diversity. Yet general nationwide concerns
arise from changes in temperature and rainfall patterns and their impacts on agricultural yields and even the type of crops that can be grown (Ramakrishna and Bang
2018). Impacts on agricultural production arguably receive less international attention compared to those linked to sea-level rise which is affecting PNG’s coastal
and low-island communities (Connell 2016). This seems surprising given the importance of domestic/subsistence agriculture to the welfare of the majority of Papua
New Guineans (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018).
Analysts also argue that the focus on averages typically depicted in climate change
models could be a distraction from the greater risks to PNG posed to by climatic
extremes of drought/flood cycles (Ramakrishna and Bang 2018; Jacka 2009). In
2015/2016 for example, much of rural PNG suffered a severe El Niño associated