24
H. Baleta et al.
could result in a US$500 million loss of income from mangoes, cashew nuts and
coconuts (Pegasys 2011).
Climate change also threatens blue water availability as a result of growing
domestic consumption through urbanization. A growing body of literature generated since the AR4 suggests that climate change in Africa will have a relatively
modest impact on water scarcity relative to other drivers, such as population growth,
urbanization, agricultural growth and land use change (Niang et al. 2014). In Africa,
increased urbanization over the next century will take the form of unplanned settlements. This will place increasing strains on already weak infrastructure and management systems. Climate change will exacerbate the effects of poor management of
stormwater in unplanned settlements, which will result in flash flooding and increased
ponding, which may act as a vector for water-related diseases.
4 Africa’s Water Infrastructure and Institutions
In order to grow and develop sustainably going forward, Africa needs resilient
infrastructure and adaptable institutions that are able to manage uncertainty.
Infrastructure development in the water sector offers significant opportunities for
growth and employment. For instance, “investment in small-scale projects providing
access to safe water and basic sanitation in Africa could offer an estimated economic
return of about US$28.4 billion a year, or nearly 5% of gross domestic product (GDP)
of the continent” (UN Water 2016). However, infrastructure without capable institutions to manage investments is not acceptable, and could possibly do more harm than
good. Moreover, the potential to increase productivity of resources may be limited:
there are 1082 dams in South Africa with a total storage capacity of 65% of the annual
runoff, and the country has just a handful of suitable sites left for development. Even
these are only questionably suited to dam construction due to the high environmental
costs and low projected benefit (Van Vuuren 2012). Natural climate variability and
anthropogenic climate change both compound the management of water resources
and require significant investment in water information, planning, governance and
hard and soft infrastructure. Depending on the stage of economic development of
the country, risks will differ in relation to the state of infrastructure development and
institutional adaptability.
The risks and opportunities associated with water and climate change
also depend on a country’s “development trajectory.” The stages of economic
development of specific countries are characterized as developing, emerging and
developed.
• Developing economies, with low levels of industrial and infrastructural development, are generally more focused on resource cultivation or extraction, such
as agriculture or mining. The country’s development goals typically focus on
improving livelihoods, ensuring food security and developing commodity-driven
exports. Agriculture is generally the biggest consumer of green water, making
H. Baleta et al.
could result in a US$500 million loss of income from mangoes, cashew nuts and
coconuts (Pegasys 2011).
Climate change also threatens blue water availability as a result of growing
domestic consumption through urbanization. A growing body of literature generated since the AR4 suggests that climate change in Africa will have a relatively
modest impact on water scarcity relative to other drivers, such as population growth,
urbanization, agricultural growth and land use change (Niang et al. 2014). In Africa,
increased urbanization over the next century will take the form of unplanned settlements. This will place increasing strains on already weak infrastructure and management systems. Climate change will exacerbate the effects of poor management of
stormwater in unplanned settlements, which will result in flash flooding and increased
ponding, which may act as a vector for water-related diseases.
4 Africa’s Water Infrastructure and Institutions
In order to grow and develop sustainably going forward, Africa needs resilient
infrastructure and adaptable institutions that are able to manage uncertainty.
Infrastructure development in the water sector offers significant opportunities for
growth and employment. For instance, “investment in small-scale projects providing
access to safe water and basic sanitation in Africa could offer an estimated economic
return of about US$28.4 billion a year, or nearly 5% of gross domestic product (GDP)
of the continent” (UN Water 2016). However, infrastructure without capable institutions to manage investments is not acceptable, and could possibly do more harm than
good. Moreover, the potential to increase productivity of resources may be limited:
there are 1082 dams in South Africa with a total storage capacity of 65% of the annual
runoff, and the country has just a handful of suitable sites left for development. Even
these are only questionably suited to dam construction due to the high environmental
costs and low projected benefit (Van Vuuren 2012). Natural climate variability and
anthropogenic climate change both compound the management of water resources
and require significant investment in water information, planning, governance and
hard and soft infrastructure. Depending on the stage of economic development of
the country, risks will differ in relation to the state of infrastructure development and
institutional adaptability.
The risks and opportunities associated with water and climate change
also depend on a country’s “development trajectory.” The stages of economic
development of specific countries are characterized as developing, emerging and
developed.
• Developing economies, with low levels of industrial and infrastructural development, are generally more focused on resource cultivation or extraction, such
as agriculture or mining. The country’s development goals typically focus on
improving livelihoods, ensuring food security and developing commodity-driven
exports. Agriculture is generally the biggest consumer of green water, making