480
L. Ferrini et al.
8 Conclusions
These case studies set out to test the claim that more holistic approaches to nexus
water management, including local knowledge and ensuring local participation,
lead to reduced climate change vulnerability and greater capacity for adaptation,
particularly for natural resource-based societies.
Based on theories of complex adaptive systems, interventions in the West African
Niger River Basin were analyzed for implications on the nexus structure across
different levels, depth of participation, use of local knowledge, and the existing governance system. The recent (2006–2018) inclusion of civil society and user associations
in the governance of the Niger Basin Authority was the first such intervention. The
second study, in the Kandadji Dam in Niger, where several villages were displaced
in the period 2013–2018, lessons learned from this experience are used to analyze
the effect of local participation on (intermediate) project outcomes in the short to
medium term. The third is the case of the Fomi Dam in Guinea, scheduled to start
construction in the coming months; data from stakeholder meetings examines the
level of local involvement and how it bears on decisions and outcomes.
Generally, these case studies indicate the importance of involving local stakeholders. This often translates into ambitious strategies and aspirational goals for
a partnership-type involvement of local knowledge. The reality, however, is that
involvement falls significantly short of goals; consultation and informing are the
norm, often with complaints from local stakeholders that information is partial,
inconsistent, and difficult to digest. In these cases, a lower level of involvement
does appear to impact management outcomes negatively.
Polycentrism of decision-making and governance is seen as an approach that
facilitates management outcomes. Formalization of polycentric governance structures appears to improve outcomes, albeit with a risk of increasing the rigidity of the
system to the point of undermining continuous learning and adaptation. Given the
largely unpredictable nature of climate change, designing management systems that
anticipate the need to adapt and learn seems key and should be given more attention.
Institutions with different mandates tend to frame and understand the system
differently, and the weakness of information exchange to reach a shared understanding of system boundaries excludes or undervalues some stakeholders, and thus
damages the outcomes for those stakeholder groups. The cases analyzed indicate
that inclusion of local knowledge in the management of natural resources can help
reduce vulnerability to climate change. In particular, for projects such as dams, which
profoundly alter the lives of entire villages in a short period of time, greater integration of local knowledge can soften the severity of vulnerability. However, assessment
(both before and after governance initiatives) needs to be improved to understand the
relationship among stakeholder involvement, management outcomes, and resulting
vulnerability.
Future research must examine which types of local knowledge are most crucial to
the management of water and land resources in vulnerable complex adaptive systems,
and look into the capacities necessary and the stakeholders best placed to collect
L. Ferrini et al.
8 Conclusions
These case studies set out to test the claim that more holistic approaches to nexus
water management, including local knowledge and ensuring local participation,
lead to reduced climate change vulnerability and greater capacity for adaptation,
particularly for natural resource-based societies.
Based on theories of complex adaptive systems, interventions in the West African
Niger River Basin were analyzed for implications on the nexus structure across
different levels, depth of participation, use of local knowledge, and the existing governance system. The recent (2006–2018) inclusion of civil society and user associations
in the governance of the Niger Basin Authority was the first such intervention. The
second study, in the Kandadji Dam in Niger, where several villages were displaced
in the period 2013–2018, lessons learned from this experience are used to analyze
the effect of local participation on (intermediate) project outcomes in the short to
medium term. The third is the case of the Fomi Dam in Guinea, scheduled to start
construction in the coming months; data from stakeholder meetings examines the
level of local involvement and how it bears on decisions and outcomes.
Generally, these case studies indicate the importance of involving local stakeholders. This often translates into ambitious strategies and aspirational goals for
a partnership-type involvement of local knowledge. The reality, however, is that
involvement falls significantly short of goals; consultation and informing are the
norm, often with complaints from local stakeholders that information is partial,
inconsistent, and difficult to digest. In these cases, a lower level of involvement
does appear to impact management outcomes negatively.
Polycentrism of decision-making and governance is seen as an approach that
facilitates management outcomes. Formalization of polycentric governance structures appears to improve outcomes, albeit with a risk of increasing the rigidity of the
system to the point of undermining continuous learning and adaptation. Given the
largely unpredictable nature of climate change, designing management systems that
anticipate the need to adapt and learn seems key and should be given more attention.
Institutions with different mandates tend to frame and understand the system
differently, and the weakness of information exchange to reach a shared understanding of system boundaries excludes or undervalues some stakeholders, and thus
damages the outcomes for those stakeholder groups. The cases analyzed indicate
that inclusion of local knowledge in the management of natural resources can help
reduce vulnerability to climate change. In particular, for projects such as dams, which
profoundly alter the lives of entire villages in a short period of time, greater integration of local knowledge can soften the severity of vulnerability. However, assessment
(both before and after governance initiatives) needs to be improved to understand the
relationship among stakeholder involvement, management outcomes, and resulting
vulnerability.
Future research must examine which types of local knowledge are most crucial to
the management of water and land resources in vulnerable complex adaptive systems,
and look into the capacities necessary and the stakeholders best placed to collect