462
L. Ferrini et al.
Because the multitude of stakeholders interacting within and across systems
(and/or issue areas) influences the system as a whole, systems, which are characterized by connectedness, complexity, uncertainty, conflict, multiple stakeholders,
and, thus, multiple perspectives, grow increasingly unpredictable (de Savigny and
Adam 2009 as cited in Swanson et al. 2012). Systems are characterized by boundaries,
perception of system complexity, and of the stakeholders and elements composing
the system, as well as of the system’s vulnerability and capacity to adapt, which all
contribute to system understanding. Ecosystems are also “perceived as bounded by
the conceptualizations and judgments of humans” (Ison et al. 2007, p.5).
It can therefore be useful to apply analysis that accounts for the complexity of
the system. The conceptualizing of systems as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
addresses this (Arnold and Wade 2015). Unlike “regular” systems, CAS behave
unpredictably owing to external influence, to the extent that cause and effect patterns
within such systems are difficult if not impossible to detect (Brincat 2017). General
(linear) systems and complex adaptive systems are distinguished by the constantly
evolving nature of CAS that interact with and are shaped by interactions with other
systems (de Savigny and Adam 2009; Brincat 2017). CAS have emergent properties
which give rise to unexpected behaviors (Brincat 2017).
Climate change can be considered the ultimate destabilizing contributor to a river
basin system that excludes it from a linear realm and places it in a complex adaptive
system. The unpredictability of climate change and its localized impact is the external
dimension that requires adoption of this additional layer of complexity.
3 Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptation
Conceptual and analytical frameworks with roots in disciplines from economics to
anthropology have integrated climate change in the analysis of complex systems of
natural resource management. The vulnerability of biophysical and social systems to
climate change is a specific subject of analysis (e.g., Cuevas 2010; Podschun 2017).
Vulnerability to climate change can be defined as “the degree to which a system
is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2001, quoted in Maxim and Spangenberg 2006:4).
Maxim and Spangenberg (2006) provide a good overview of vulnerability, illustrating its analysis through the use of the DPSIR framework (driving forces, pressures, state, impacts, and responses) which integrates social, political, economic, and
environmental factors.
For societies reliant on direct use of natural resources, which is the case in the
Niger Basin, the adaptation definition by Thomas et al. (2005:7) applies: “Adaptation
is seen as the adjustment of a system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to
take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. In many cases,
climate does not affect people directly but indirectly, by affecting the physical and
L. Ferrini et al.
Because the multitude of stakeholders interacting within and across systems
(and/or issue areas) influences the system as a whole, systems, which are characterized by connectedness, complexity, uncertainty, conflict, multiple stakeholders,
and, thus, multiple perspectives, grow increasingly unpredictable (de Savigny and
Adam 2009 as cited in Swanson et al. 2012). Systems are characterized by boundaries,
perception of system complexity, and of the stakeholders and elements composing
the system, as well as of the system’s vulnerability and capacity to adapt, which all
contribute to system understanding. Ecosystems are also “perceived as bounded by
the conceptualizations and judgments of humans” (Ison et al. 2007, p.5).
It can therefore be useful to apply analysis that accounts for the complexity of
the system. The conceptualizing of systems as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
addresses this (Arnold and Wade 2015). Unlike “regular” systems, CAS behave
unpredictably owing to external influence, to the extent that cause and effect patterns
within such systems are difficult if not impossible to detect (Brincat 2017). General
(linear) systems and complex adaptive systems are distinguished by the constantly
evolving nature of CAS that interact with and are shaped by interactions with other
systems (de Savigny and Adam 2009; Brincat 2017). CAS have emergent properties
which give rise to unexpected behaviors (Brincat 2017).
Climate change can be considered the ultimate destabilizing contributor to a river
basin system that excludes it from a linear realm and places it in a complex adaptive
system. The unpredictability of climate change and its localized impact is the external
dimension that requires adoption of this additional layer of complexity.
3 Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptation
Conceptual and analytical frameworks with roots in disciplines from economics to
anthropology have integrated climate change in the analysis of complex systems of
natural resource management. The vulnerability of biophysical and social systems to
climate change is a specific subject of analysis (e.g., Cuevas 2010; Podschun 2017).
Vulnerability to climate change can be defined as “the degree to which a system
is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and
its adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2001, quoted in Maxim and Spangenberg 2006:4).
Maxim and Spangenberg (2006) provide a good overview of vulnerability, illustrating its analysis through the use of the DPSIR framework (driving forces, pressures, state, impacts, and responses) which integrates social, political, economic, and
environmental factors.
For societies reliant on direct use of natural resources, which is the case in the
Niger Basin, the adaptation definition by Thomas et al. (2005:7) applies: “Adaptation
is seen as the adjustment of a system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to
take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. In many cases,
climate does not affect people directly but indirectly, by affecting the physical and