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near-real-time estimates of nearly all aspects of the hydrological cycle (Sheffield et al.
2018), and, when coupled with hydrological modelling systems, can provide consistent and continuous estimates of the hydrological cycle, including its extremes. The
effectiveness of this approach has been demonstrated in various settings, such as the
African Flood and Drought Monitor (AFDM) system (Sheffield et al. 2014). The
AFDM provides drought and flood monitoring, and short-term and seasonal forecasting that combines climate predictions, hydrological models and remote sensing
data in the sub-Saharan African continent. This chapter describes how the AFDM
is adapted to the Lake Chad Basin, a mechanism known as the Lake Chad Basin
Flood and Drought Monitor (CHADFDM), to provide timely and useful information on water resources and hydrological hazards and improve management and
preparedness in the region. The CHADFDM is designed specifically for the Lake
Chad Basin, building on representations of the lake dynamics, updated soil and
vegetation parameters, and incorporation of existing ground data.
1.1 Supporting the Lake Chad Basin Commission and Its
Member States
The Lake Chad Basin Flood and Drought Monitor (CHADFDM) is a platform to
develop monitoring and forecasting for planning and decision-making in Lake Chad.
The platform supports the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), the organization
that represents member states, by providing data so that it can fulfill its mandate to
implement the Water Charter.
The Water Charter highlights the importance of monitoring water dynamics in the
lake and recognizes that, in addition to natural climate variability, an uncontrolled
increase in irrigation abstractions could impact the water level and footprint of Lake
Chad. This in turn will have an impact on dependent ecosystems and the livelihoods
they support. The Charter explicitly recognizes the importance of data generation
and information exchange among member states in this transboundary basin, which
is essential to develop a common understanding and manage water resources and
aquatic ecosystems effectively. Specific obligations of the LCBC include (World
Bank Group 2018) the following:
a. Monitoring and analysing the hydrologic system and its components (rainfall,
ET, streamflow, soil moisture, vegetation).
b. Monitoring the hydro-ecological status of the basin in real time and in the context
of short-term and seasonal forecasts.
c. Managing relevant information (e.g. hydro-meteorological data, model results,
water uses and abstraction impacts) among member states through a water
resources information management system.
d. Supporting evidence-based decision-making for sound management of water
resources in the Lake Chad Basin.
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