15 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources …
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regional climate change hotspots throughout the twenty-first century of the RCP8.5
and RCP4.5 forcing pathways in the 2016–2035, 2046–2065 and 2080–2099 periods.
These hotspots are characterized by widespread increases in mean temperature, the
intensification of extreme hot seasons and changes in intensity and distribution of
precipitation. These analyses, however, did not consider non-climatic factors that
will ultimately determine the impacts of climate change.
The West African region is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme
climate events such as floods and droughts. The region is highly reliant on rain-fed
agriculture and has little economic and institutional capacity to address the consequences of climate variability and change (Sultan and Gaetani 2016; Zougmoré et al.
2016). These factors make the region particularly vulnerable to frequent food crises,
especially in the drier areas, including in northern sections of the Volta Basin (Caritas
2018; van de Giesen et al. 2010). These impacts invariably result in loss of human life
and livelihoods, which undermine advances toward sustainable development objectives (CCAFS 2013). Poverty is defined as unacceptable deprivation in one or several
dimensions of human welfare (Ravallion 1996). The African Development Bank has
noted that agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa has been demonstrated to be a
principal driver of poverty reduction and stimulus of growth across economic sectors
on the continent. In fact, agricultural growth in this region has been demonstrated
to be twice as effective in reducing poverty as growth based in other sectors (AfDB
2010). Between 2007 and 2017, the share of the national labor force attributed to the
agricultural sector ranged from 33.6% in Mali to 47.5% in Togo, with an average of
41.6% across the six countries of the Volta basin. In 2017 alone, the sector generated
about 42.5% of the basin’s economic output (AfDB 2018). Several factors, including
climate shocks and loss of employment in agriculture, have adversely affected agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to drop by nearly
10% this decade, with a corresponding increase in the numbers of people running
small household businesses (World Development Report 2018).
Data submitted by all six riparian countries to the UNFCCC over the past 15 years
reveals that increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation in the Volta Basin
are very likely to reduce cereal crop productivity with the potential to undermine food
security (UNFCCC 2011, 2015a, b, 2017, 2018). In spite of these challenges, agriculture continues to make an important contribution to the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) of all the Volta Basin countries (Lemoalle and de Condappa 2010). Between
2007 and 2017, the share of the national labor force of the agriculture sector ranged
from 33.6% in Mali to 47.5% in Togo, with an average of 41.6% across the six
countries of the Volta basin (IMF 2018).
In 2017 alone, the sector generated about 42.5% of the basin’s economic output
(AfDB 2018). Food crops grown in the basin include maize, millet, sorghum, rice,
yam, groundnut, Bambara beans, cowpea, soybean and vegetables including tomato,
onion, cabbage, pepper and okra. Cocoa, cotton and coffee are the predominant cash
crops (UNFCCC 2011, 2015a, b, 2017, 2018). Planting is usually done in the wet
season and the vast majority of crop farms are small in size, with farmers typically
using rudimentary tools such as hoes and cutlasses with limited application of agrochemicals (Chamberlin 2008; Zougmoré et al. 2016). Total chemical fertilizer use
343
regional climate change hotspots throughout the twenty-first century of the RCP8.5
and RCP4.5 forcing pathways in the 2016–2035, 2046–2065 and 2080–2099 periods.
These hotspots are characterized by widespread increases in mean temperature, the
intensification of extreme hot seasons and changes in intensity and distribution of
precipitation. These analyses, however, did not consider non-climatic factors that
will ultimately determine the impacts of climate change.
The West African region is particularly vulnerable to climate change and extreme
climate events such as floods and droughts. The region is highly reliant on rain-fed
agriculture and has little economic and institutional capacity to address the consequences of climate variability and change (Sultan and Gaetani 2016; Zougmoré et al.
2016). These factors make the region particularly vulnerable to frequent food crises,
especially in the drier areas, including in northern sections of the Volta Basin (Caritas
2018; van de Giesen et al. 2010). These impacts invariably result in loss of human life
and livelihoods, which undermine advances toward sustainable development objectives (CCAFS 2013). Poverty is defined as unacceptable deprivation in one or several
dimensions of human welfare (Ravallion 1996). The African Development Bank has
noted that agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa has been demonstrated to be a
principal driver of poverty reduction and stimulus of growth across economic sectors
on the continent. In fact, agricultural growth in this region has been demonstrated
to be twice as effective in reducing poverty as growth based in other sectors (AfDB
2010). Between 2007 and 2017, the share of the national labor force attributed to the
agricultural sector ranged from 33.6% in Mali to 47.5% in Togo, with an average of
41.6% across the six countries of the Volta basin. In 2017 alone, the sector generated
about 42.5% of the basin’s economic output (AfDB 2018). Several factors, including
climate shocks and loss of employment in agriculture, have adversely affected agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to drop by nearly
10% this decade, with a corresponding increase in the numbers of people running
small household businesses (World Development Report 2018).
Data submitted by all six riparian countries to the UNFCCC over the past 15 years
reveals that increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation in the Volta Basin
are very likely to reduce cereal crop productivity with the potential to undermine food
security (UNFCCC 2011, 2015a, b, 2017, 2018). In spite of these challenges, agriculture continues to make an important contribution to the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) of all the Volta Basin countries (Lemoalle and de Condappa 2010). Between
2007 and 2017, the share of the national labor force of the agriculture sector ranged
from 33.6% in Mali to 47.5% in Togo, with an average of 41.6% across the six
countries of the Volta basin (IMF 2018).
In 2017 alone, the sector generated about 42.5% of the basin’s economic output
(AfDB 2018). Food crops grown in the basin include maize, millet, sorghum, rice,
yam, groundnut, Bambara beans, cowpea, soybean and vegetables including tomato,
onion, cabbage, pepper and okra. Cocoa, cotton and coffee are the predominant cash
crops (UNFCCC 2011, 2015a, b, 2017, 2018). Planting is usually done in the wet
season and the vast majority of crop farms are small in size, with farmers typically
using rudimentary tools such as hoes and cutlasses with limited application of agrochemicals (Chamberlin 2008; Zougmoré et al. 2016). Total chemical fertilizer use