Chapter 5
Climate Change Impact on Hydrological
Regimes and Extreme Events in Southern
Africa
Samuel Kusangaya, Dominic Mazvimavi, Munyaradzi D. Shekede,
Barbra Masunga, Francesca Kunedzimwe, and Desmond Manatsa
Abstract Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water
resources resulting from population growth, economic factors and land use changes,
impacting on the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. In southern Africa, changes in the intensity, frequency and duration of weather
extremes have resulted in recurrent droughts, floods, tropical cyclones among other
phenomena. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect has intensified in
the past four decades (1900–2010) resulting in increased frequency of floods and
droughts in Southern Africa. Furthermore, the projected increase in the frequency of
droughts is likely to reduce flows and water storage. On the other hand, some regions
may experience an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation
events associated with flooding (and extreme high flows). Countries like Mozambique, South Africa, Malawi and Zimbabwe are already experiencing recurrent floods
and droughts. Projected increases in the frequencies and magnitudes of such events
through to 2050, coupled with rising populations in the region, suggests that the
vulnerability of weather-sensitive sectors, particularly water resources and agricultural production will increase. This will affect aquatic ecosystems, water supply,
irrigation, leisure, and hydropower generation. The implications of these findings
are as follows: (1) Water availability is likely to be compromised, (2) Water management measures are likely to be tightened. (3) Dependence on rain-fed agriculture
is likely to increase food insecurity for most southern African countries as a result
of reduced agricultural production. (4) Similarly, electricity generation is likely to
S. Kusangaya (B) · M. D. Shekede · B. Masunga · F. Kunedzimwe
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Zimbabwe, P.O Box MP
167, Mt Pleasant Harare, Zimbabwe
e-mail: kusangayas@yahoo.com
D. Mazvimavi
Institute for Water Studies, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Bellville,
South Africa
D. Manatsa
Geography and Environmental Science Department, Free State University, Bloemfontein, South
Africa
Geography Department, Bindura University of Science, Bindura, Zimbabwe
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
S. Diop et al. (eds.), Climate Change and Water Resources in Africa,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61225-2_5
87
Climate Change Impact on Hydrological
Regimes and Extreme Events in Southern
Africa
Samuel Kusangaya, Dominic Mazvimavi, Munyaradzi D. Shekede,
Barbra Masunga, Francesca Kunedzimwe, and Desmond Manatsa
Abstract Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water
resources resulting from population growth, economic factors and land use changes,
impacting on the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. In southern Africa, changes in the intensity, frequency and duration of weather
extremes have resulted in recurrent droughts, floods, tropical cyclones among other
phenomena. For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect has intensified in
the past four decades (1900–2010) resulting in increased frequency of floods and
droughts in Southern Africa. Furthermore, the projected increase in the frequency of
droughts is likely to reduce flows and water storage. On the other hand, some regions
may experience an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation
events associated with flooding (and extreme high flows). Countries like Mozambique, South Africa, Malawi and Zimbabwe are already experiencing recurrent floods
and droughts. Projected increases in the frequencies and magnitudes of such events
through to 2050, coupled with rising populations in the region, suggests that the
vulnerability of weather-sensitive sectors, particularly water resources and agricultural production will increase. This will affect aquatic ecosystems, water supply,
irrigation, leisure, and hydropower generation. The implications of these findings
are as follows: (1) Water availability is likely to be compromised, (2) Water management measures are likely to be tightened. (3) Dependence on rain-fed agriculture
is likely to increase food insecurity for most southern African countries as a result
of reduced agricultural production. (4) Similarly, electricity generation is likely to
S. Kusangaya (B) · M. D. Shekede · B. Masunga · F. Kunedzimwe
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Zimbabwe, P.O Box MP
167, Mt Pleasant Harare, Zimbabwe
e-mail: kusangayas@yahoo.com
D. Mazvimavi
Institute for Water Studies, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Bellville,
South Africa
D. Manatsa
Geography and Environmental Science Department, Free State University, Bloemfontein, South
Africa
Geography Department, Bindura University of Science, Bindura, Zimbabwe
© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
S. Diop et al. (eds.), Climate Change and Water Resources in Africa,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61225-2_5
87