climate change, and so on. These are risks which influence everyday life. Although
these risks may have been taken as inevitable in the past, today, society increasingly
perceives that risk can be eliminated, and that someone is the culprit if anything goes
wrong.
This perception not only shows the lack of understanding of probability theory
and the cost of reliability, but also reveals the associated contradiction. The same
people who complain most against the influence and control of technology on human
life are often the ones who are most vocal when technology is not able to control or
direct human behaviour and eliminate human error.
The issue of risk is a complex one, at least because it carries a strong emotional
component particularly when one can feel or see the potential risk. It is useful to
remember that risk is a complex concept: it is the product of the probability that an
event (usually something wrong or unwanted) will occur and the (negative) effect it
will generate, if it does occur. Generally, risk mitigation within the infrastructure
sector is concerned with reducing to a minimum both components (the probability
and the negative effect), due regard given to the effort required with respect to costeffectiveness.
Risk management is not a separate work package within a project; it is a
management approach to identify and control events that have the possibility to
provoke unwanted consequences. In different sectors of project management, risk
may show itself differently. It is therefore convenient to recognize five facets:
• technical
• programmatic
• supportability
• cost
• schedule
However, these facets are not independent, and it is most common to view
technical, programmatic and supportability risks as the risk drivers and cost and
schedule risk as the dependent risk indicators.
As far as the risk drivers are concerned:
Technical risk is the risk connected with developing a new design when a higher
performance level is desired, or trying to obtain an equal or lower performance level,
compatible with additional constraints.
Programmatic risks are those that include the procurement and the use of
relevant resources and activities that lie beyond the project’s purview or control,
but which can influence the project’s objectives. Examples of programmatic risk
include political/economic instability, environmental concerns and inadequate subcontractor capability.
Supportability risk is associated with potential problems in maintaining system
performance over whatever period is contractually specified, and arises mainly from
imperfect subcontractor capability and inadequate engineering, specially planning.
16.1 Risk Assessment and Management
443
these risks may have been taken as inevitable in the past, today, society increasingly
perceives that risk can be eliminated, and that someone is the culprit if anything goes
wrong.
This perception not only shows the lack of understanding of probability theory
and the cost of reliability, but also reveals the associated contradiction. The same
people who complain most against the influence and control of technology on human
life are often the ones who are most vocal when technology is not able to control or
direct human behaviour and eliminate human error.
The issue of risk is a complex one, at least because it carries a strong emotional
component particularly when one can feel or see the potential risk. It is useful to
remember that risk is a complex concept: it is the product of the probability that an
event (usually something wrong or unwanted) will occur and the (negative) effect it
will generate, if it does occur. Generally, risk mitigation within the infrastructure
sector is concerned with reducing to a minimum both components (the probability
and the negative effect), due regard given to the effort required with respect to costeffectiveness.
Risk management is not a separate work package within a project; it is a
management approach to identify and control events that have the possibility to
provoke unwanted consequences. In different sectors of project management, risk
may show itself differently. It is therefore convenient to recognize five facets:
• technical
• programmatic
• supportability
• cost
• schedule
However, these facets are not independent, and it is most common to view
technical, programmatic and supportability risks as the risk drivers and cost and
schedule risk as the dependent risk indicators.
As far as the risk drivers are concerned:
Technical risk is the risk connected with developing a new design when a higher
performance level is desired, or trying to obtain an equal or lower performance level,
compatible with additional constraints.
Programmatic risks are those that include the procurement and the use of
relevant resources and activities that lie beyond the project’s purview or control,
but which can influence the project’s objectives. Examples of programmatic risk
include political/economic instability, environmental concerns and inadequate subcontractor capability.
Supportability risk is associated with potential problems in maintaining system
performance over whatever period is contractually specified, and arises mainly from
imperfect subcontractor capability and inadequate engineering, specially planning.
16.1 Risk Assessment and Management
443